Saskatchewan’s forests are getting smaller due to lack of water as a result of global climate change says a recent study.

A study from the University of Montreal looked at the combined growth of trees in roughly 27 tree plots in Saskatchewan and 96 across the country. It found in comparison with forests in Eastern Canada, trees in the west are growing slower and dying faster.

The analysis blames higher temperatures and lower precipitation levels for the decline in forest size. It estimates that western forests are now producing two tonnes less per hectare than they were 40 years ago.

Skepticism remains locally

But officials with the Saskatchewan Ministry of Environment are skeptical of that number.

“We’re a little bit uncertain about (it) and how we would want to apply that in any larger scale, simply because they used a very small fraction of the plots available to them,” said Lane Gelhorn, an analyst for Sask. Environment.

“But in general we would agree that our (permanent sample plots) do show a decline in biomass that can’t be explained by plot age.”

The study has suggested that forests are now producing more greenhouse gases than they absorb, which would debunk the assumption that global warming may aid growth in forests because of increased carbon in the air.

However, Gelhorn said that can’t be determined for sure.

“The study refers to the carbon content of living trees on one part of the forest in older stands. But much of our forests are found in younger ages,” he said.

“This paper doesn’t really provide a tonne of evidence that our forests will become a carbon source rather than a carbon sink. More detailed analysis is required to understand the probability that our forests are or will emit more greenhouse gases than they absorb.”

What Gelhorn did say was that changes need to be made in the way wood forecasts are done.

“Clearly we need to some work, and have been doing work, in …developing models that help us predict growth in the presence of climate change,” he said.

Best practice in predicting forest growth has always been to assume a constant climate but that may no longer work because the study has shown climate change is affecting forests and prediction methods and they need to be adapted to accommodate those changes.

Edited by News Talk Radio's Adriana Christianson with files from paNow.com