Saskatchewan Health Authority to release updated modelling numbers

At the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak, the Saskatchewan Health Authority (SHA) released grim modelling numbers in order to properly plan for the worst-case scenario for infections.

Now those numbers are changing.

SHA CEO Scott Livingstone said the health authority will be releasing new modelling numbers this week to provide a more current picture to the public and to shift some plans moving forward.

“The effective rate of spread is under one; that is a good news story. It means that we are looking like we are for sure flattening the curve and it means the restrictions that are in place as well as the other offensive strategies that we are taking as an SHA are working,” Livingstone told reporters last week.

“We also know, however, from the modelling data is if you pulled everything away we would very quickly go back up to our original projected numbers.”

As the province moves forward with the Re-Open Saskatchewan Plan, Livingstone cautioned that many restrictions will have to remain in place to keep the spread contained and protect the community.

Livingstone explained the new modelling numbers will help inform how the SHA’s defensive strategy for building capacity in hospitals may be able to change going ahead.

Previous modelling numbers were based on the spread of COVID-19 in other jurisdictions.

“The advantage of this new modelling is it includes much more Saskatchewan-based data, including what our rate of spread is. That’s through our aggressive contact tracing and we know where we’ve been breaking the chain of infection and how well that’s working,” Livingstone said.

Livingstone also noted broad testing numbers across the province helped inform the new data available.

Currently Saskatchewan has the capacity to test far more than the 1,500 people per day which Premier Scott Moe set as a goal, and the requirements for testing have now been expanded to include anyone with even just one potential symptom.

Livingstone accounted for a drop in testing numbers by saying people with symptoms aren’t showing up to be tested, and the number of calls to HealthLine 811 have even dropped.