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A Saskatoon political expert thinks the Saskatchewan NDP is facing an uphill battle in the upcoming provincial election.
Dr. Joe Garcea, a political studies professor at the University of Saskatchewan, doesn’t think the opposition has any real chance of unseating the governing Saskatchewan Party.
“The NDP is going to find it difficult to make any significant gains,” he told Gormley guest host Mike Couros on Friday. “For them, it will be a matter of basically either treading water, going up by a couple of seats or perhaps going down by a couple of seats …,
“Anything beyond an increase or decrease of two seats for them would be surprising.”
He believes the NDP’s campaigning has been weak, which won’t let the party make any meaningful progress.
“The important question to ask here is, ‘Why hasn’t the NDP been able to gain greater traction?’ ” he said.
Garcea thinks the government has been much more aggressive in its campaigning, which has allowed the Sask. Party to keep a strong hold on the legislature.
“What I’ve noticed is that the Sask. Party has the usual 1-2 punch,” he said. “One is they demonize the leader of the NDP (Ryan Meili) and two, they demonize the record of the NDP. I just haven’t seen that kind of attack from the NDP against the premier an/or against the Sask. Party. It just surprises me.”
He also believes the NDP isn’t strong enough in its messaging.
“They keep making these little promises, little things that they’re going to do, but they haven’t been able to get that kind of galvanizing campaign message that says, ‘We are better than them,’ or at least, ‘They haven’t been as good as they should have been …,’ ” he explained.
“It wouldn’t take a genius to mount a more formidable campaign against an incumbent party that was having some challenges just prior to the (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak. For the life of me, I don’t understand why they’re not able to launch that kind of campaign.”
If the opposition isn’t able to turn things around, Garcea thinks there could be some serious trouble on the horizon.
“If they start losing seats, more than two or three, then it’s really a matter of facing survival and trying to move the party forward,” he said.
Meili could even be at risk of losing his seat in the Saskatoon-Meewasin constituency. Asked if he thought Meili should be running to win the election or just to be a strong opposition, Garcea was blunt.
“Frankly, right now I think he’s running for survival. Even in his own seat here in Saskatoon, there is very heavy campaigning on the part of the Sask. Party. They would love nothing more than to unseat him, and he may be vulnerable,” Garcea said.
“That would be another big hit for the NDP at this particular point in time. There’s a lot of soul-searching going on and I’m sure a lot of praying as well.”
