No major surprises to come in election results: political scientist

The writ has been dropped and for the next four weeks or so the governing will stop and the campaigning will kick into high gear.

On election night, Joe Garcea doesn’t think there will be any major surprises in terms of the outcome. He’s a professor of political studies at the University of Saskatchewan.

Garcea said there might be some interesting dynamics to see throughout the campaign, and it could be interesting to see what happens to the NDP going forward.

“That’s, I think, the biggest question that’s out there in terms of the political parties,” Garcea said.

As COVID-19 has changed how the candidates do their campaigning, Garcea said it could play a part in the politics of the election as well. He said both parties are looking at the possibility of a second wave and what happens with the virus in schools – he said that’s where the Sask. Party is really holding its breath.

“It just does not want COVID, in particular the management of COVID within the schools to become a major election issue. I think there’s a lot of hope and prayer on the part of the governing party that things will not turn for the worse, in terms of the children and teachers in the school system,” he said..

Garcea believes the pandemic has been valuable for the Sask. Party when it comes to its financial strategies. He said it’s gotten the issue of the province’s growing debt and deficit off the party’s back – something he thinks the party was worried about becoming a big issue this election.

“But, COVID, I think has provided them with an excuse to say that, ‘it’s really not our fault that we’re going to have a large deficit and a large debt because COVID necessitated it.’”

When it comes to political strategy, Garcea believes the Sask. Party will try to position itself as the party that will fight for the best interests of Saskatchewan on the federal stage. However, the NDP will likely try to counter that, saying the Sask. Party will only fight for its own interests.

Garcea said the NDP will have to convince people that having a strong opposition with a good number of MLAs is the best thing for the province and for good democracy.

“In order to function, an opposition needs a certain number of MLAs and the smaller the number of MLAs the more challenging it becomes for the opposition to hold the government accountable,” Garcea said.

Garcea said, of course, the NDP is looking to pick up some seats, but the seats the party has the potential to take are the result of a small number of swing voters, so he predicts if the NDP’s numbers go up it won’t be by much.

“They’re hoping to pick up two or three, and if they pick some up it’ll be seen as a moral victory. If they lose any seats it’ll be quite demoralizing,” said Garcea.

He also thinks the NDP will be looking at voter support as a way to gauge success.

“Even though you may not win seats sometimes, it shows that you have a substantial amount of support among the electorate. Sometimes you lose a seat by one vote, doesn’t mean that the people don’t support you, it’s just that the other party got one more vote than you did and they got the seat,” said Garcea.

The provincial election is set for Oct. 26.