Election watchers take an interest in battleground ridings

Several political scientists have said the overall results of Monday’s provincial election aren’t likely to surprise – they say the Saskatchewan Party will most likely form government.

But zooming in on the provincial map can reveal some hotly-contested ridings that will be a focus once the polls close.

Jim Farney, a political scientist and department head at the University of Regina, said there are about a dozen ridings between Regina and Saskatoon that will be interesting to watch. He said many of them were close in the last election, like the seat last held by the Sask. Party’s Mark Docherty in Regina Coronation Park.

“It was a close race last time. The NDP has been polling well in Regina so you’d expect them to surge a bit higher,” said Farney.

He also mentioned Regina University could be an interesting riding because the Sask. Party’s Tina Beaudry-Mellor won by just a few hundred votes in the 2016 election but she’s going up against Aleana Young for the NDP again.

“It’s a really good test, I guess, of how well the Sask. Party versus the NDP is doing in Regina because it’s the same two candidates and obviously Beaudry-Mellor and Aleana Young have a lot of name recognition,” explained Farney.

Farney also pointed to Regina Walsh Acres as a potentially interesting race.

He said he would have thought it would be a solid chance for the NDP to get a seat back but with Sandra Morin having been ousted from the NDP candidacy and deciding to run as an independent, that seat is a little more unsure.

Moose Jaw Wakamow and Prince Albert Carlton were also on Farney’s lips as ridings to watch.

“I’m not sure they’re going to switch out of the Sask. Party column, but they’re the most likely seats outside the two big cities to swing, and that’s really important,” he said.

In Saskatoon, Farney said Saskatoon Eastview had its own nomination controversy when the Sask. Party’s nominee, Daryl Cooper, stepped away over social media support for QAnon.

Farney said Saskatoon Fairview, University, and Westview are all in play as well.

Parties outside the province’s big two, the Sask. Party and the NDP, could have an influence on the race.

Farney said the Liberals ran a full slate in the last election but only have a few candidates this time around. He explained the small percentage of votes that went to the Liberals last time could switch to the NDP, and could be a factor in close contests.

He said the Green Party and Buffalo Party could also pull votes one way or another.