Latest COVID update Nov. 19

 

The modelling provided by the Saskatchewan government shows two different outcomes depending on how many people follow current COVID-19 restrictions.

In an update Thursday, Dr. Saqib Shahab, the province’s chief medical health officer, showed the trend in Saskatchewan, which has been going in the wrong direction for public health officials.

Saskatchewan now has 179 cases per 100,000 people, which is the third-highest such rate in Canada. Only Alberta and Manitoba have a higher rate.

Shahab said this is an update on the assumptions made every month and modelling is always done for a worst-case scenario, even if case numbers are low.

“What it shows us is that you can, through fairly simple measures, bend the curve,” Shahab said.

Those measures includes mask use, a fraction of the population participating in weekly gatherings, and the size of those gatherings.

The optimistic modelling predicts 76 new cases per day, 4,830 new cases over six months, and 34 deaths over that time.

That model is based on 60 per cent of people using masks, 20 per cent of the population engaging in weekly gatherings that are capped at five people, 50 per cent of people working from home, and bar/restaurant use down to a quarter of historical averages.

Meanwhile, the pessimistic model shows 469,000 new cases over the next six months, 677 hospital admissions per day and 4,800 deaths.

That model is based on only 20 per cent of people using masks, 50 per cent of people going out weekly in groups of 20, only 10 per cent of people working from home, and restaurant/bar use remaining at historical averages.

“It’s surprising how individual actions can make an impact but they have to happen. We can’t say we won’t make any change in our day-to-day life because everyone else is. That’s not how it works,” Shahab said.

Shahab said transmission trains are becoming harder to find.

From Oct. 1 until Sunday, there were 34 cases without known exposures, 526 without any identified exposures and 1,171 cases pending when it comes to tracking down exposure.

“Contact tracing is very challenging and the longer we stay in this, the longer it’s going to be to turn things around,” Shahab said.

A look at the numbers

For just the third time in the past two weeks, Saskatchewan didn’t report a triple-digit total of new COVID-19 cases Thursday.

However, the Ministry of Health said there are reasons why Thursday’s number was just 98.

“Weather and logistical impediments resulted in a volume of specimens reaching the Roy Romanow Provincial Laboratory after the reporting period for November 19,” the release said.

The provincial government had reported more than 100 cases in 11 of the previous 13 days. It announced 87 cases on Nov. 6 and 81 last Friday.

The new cases reported Thursday increased the provincial total to date to 5,651.

There were 25 new cases reported in the Regina region and 10 in the Saskatoon area. The others were in the south-central (14), northwest (12), north-central (12), northeast (five), central-east (five), southeast (five), far northeast (three), far northwest (two) and central-west (one) areas.

The hometowns of four cases are pending.

The number of people in hospital due to COVID increased to 83, with 21 in intensive care. Both figures are all-time highs for the province since the pandemic began in March.

The ICU cases are in Saskatoon (nine), Regina (five), the north-central area (four), the central-east zone (two) and the southwest (one).

The 62 patients receiving inpatient care are in Saskatoon (30), the southeast (11), Regina (six), the northwest (five), the north-central (five), the northeast (two), the southwest (two) and the south-central (one) areas.

There were 132 recoveries reported, a single-day record in the province. To date, 32 Saskatchewan residents have died after testing positive for COVID-19.

The number of active cases being reported in Saskatchewan fell to 2,066. That number includes 600 cases in the Saskatoon area, 379 in the Regina region, 235 in the north-central area and 175 in the northwest zone.

The total number of cases comprises 2,490 community contacts, 1,566 that are under investigation, 1,176 without any known exposures, and 419 travellers.

There have been 163 cases among health-care workers in the province.

To date, 2,059 cases have been in the 20-to-39 age range, 1,539 have been between the ages of 40 and 59, 1,189 have involved people 19 and under, 701 have been aged 60 to 79, and 158 have been 80 and older. The ages of five cases remain under investigation.

There have been 1,628 cases from the Saskatoon area, 1,208 cases in the north, 836 in the Regina region, 749 from the south zone, 701 cases in the far north and 503 from the central zone. The hometowns of 26 cases are pending.

There were 2,004 tests processed in the province on Wednesday, increasing the total to date to 307,264.

Since Sept. 7, 35,988 tests have been done in the 0-19 age range. During the week of Nov. 9-15, there were 445 active cases in that age group.