Kenney’s resignation leaves opening for NDP, prof says

Jason Kenney’s resignation leaves a potential pathway to power for the New Democrats in Alberta, according to a Calgary political scientist.

On Wednesday, Kenney announced he would step down as leader of Alberta’s United Conservative Party (UCP) after an approval vote of 51.4 per cent was delivered by his party’s members.

Kenney’s decision to resign surprised many, including political science professor Duane Bratt. Bratt, who also chairs the department of economics, justice and policy at Mount Royal University, said there could be a shift in government in Alberta.

While he was shocked by both the result of the approval vote and Kenney’s subsequent resignation, Bratt said Kenney did the right thing.

“It was untenable that any leader goes forward with half of the party,” Bratt told John Gormley on Thursday morning.

However, Kenney’s decision does not align with his previous stance on his leadership. Bratt cited Kenney’s statements that he only needed “50 per cent plus one” to remain in power, and Kenney’s belief he would save the UCP.

“Given all that I know about Jason Kenney and his fighting nature, and the fact he’s a political lifer, I really believed he was going to fight it through, as dismal a result as it was,” Bratt said.

The opening of Kenney’s speech following the vote initially made Bratt believe he would not resign. But after acknowledging that he respects the democratic process, Kenney paused before announcing his intent.

“I just gasped and actually kind of swore in response,” Bratt recalled with a chuckle.

Though he wasn’t present at the event, Bratt has heard the announcement was met with boos and tears from those in the room.

Bratt said he chalks up the decomposition of Kenney’s leadership partly to the internal nature of the UCP, a party that was initially formed to bring together different sides of the conservative aisle in unity against the NDP.

That won the party a majority, but cracks soon appeared, Bratt explained. Urban and rural members were at odds, and social and fiscal conservatives stood in fierce opposition. Then COVID-19 hit, exacerbating tensions within the party as its members took opposite stances on restrictions and vaccine mandates.

Bratt also cited leadership problems from Kenney himself, with the leader claiming the party was grassroots but instead micromanaging affairs from his premier’s office.

“There are MLAs in his own party who may have had one or two one-on-one conversations with Kenney over the last three years,” Bratt said, noting the caucus consisted of only 60 members. Bratt said that showed where Kenney was coming from and what his plans were.

Kenney showcased a combative style, Bratt said, bashing opponents and refusing to acknowledge errors when they were made. Kenney also made a habit of sending out his cabinet ministers to apologize when things went wrong, he added.

Further ethics issues — an RCMP investigation over Kenney’s 2017 leadership race victory and a review of UCP leadership by Elections Alberta over a large number of party memberships purchased with only six credit cards — poisoned the well of Kenney’s power, Bratt shared.

The resignation leaves an opening for a new leader in the province, and not necessarily one from the UCP.

Bratt said NDP Leader Rachel Notley is now in a solid position, with a united party behind her that has been winning in polling and fundraising in recent years.

He noted the opposition NDP has raised millions more than the conservative government, calling it “remarkable.” Bratt also offered the perspective that the current NDP is stronger than it was when the party held power in 2015.

And, more than a year in advance of a possible election, Bratt noted Alberta’s NDP is already running television ads with Albertans simply highlighting how much they like Notley — a direct rebuke to Kenney, who Bratt said hasn’t been considered nice by even his allies.

“Most people in this country can’t name a single opposition leader in a province or federally, but they can (name) Rachel Notley,” Bratt said.

Kenney will stay in a leadership role until an interim leader is selected.