Canadians have more trust in Carney than they did in Trudeau: poll

OTTAWA — Canadians have more trust in Prime Minister Mark Carney now than they did in former prime minister Justin Trudeau after he was first elected, a new poll suggests.

The annual Proof Strategies CanTrust Index survey — which is conducted by The Logit Group and can’t be assigned a margin of error because it surveyed people online — polled 1,250 Canadians between May 5 and 14.

The survey asked respondents to rate Canadian political party leaders based on how much they “trust each one and their ability or potential ability to do what is right for Canada and Canadians.”

The poll suggests that just over half of Canadians trusted Carney as of May 2025, while just 26 per cent said they trusted Trudeau in January.

A 2016 poll from Proof Strategies, which has been tracking trust for a decade, suggested that only 46 per cent of Canadians trusted Trudeau at the time.

Carney is “coming out of the gate after the election at a 52 per cent trust level, which, for a politician in Canada, is really impressive, so he’s got a great start,” said Proof Strategies Inc. chair Bruce MacLellan.

“He’s got confidence and trust with people behind him and now he has to get on to the really difficult job of governing.”

MacLellan said it will be hard for Carney to maintain that high trust level.

“If he can strike the right balance and show Canadians that he really cares and he understands the needs that they have and the needs of the country, he could maintain these high levels of trust for a longer period of time,” he said.

Looking at Trudeau’s decade in office, MacLellan said some of the moments when his trust scores plummeted corresponded with events like the WE Charity scandal, the conflict with Jody Wilson-Raybould and the news that he had worn blackface before becoming prime minister.

“These isolated events, which were significant, they caused his trust to plummet immediately in each case and he was never able to really build that trust back up,” he said. “There’s an old saying about trust that trust comes in on foot and it leaves in a Maserati… It can be very slow to try to build trust and you can lose it in a flash.”

Trust in Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre seems to have stalled since this year’s election, the survey suggests, with 38 per cent of Canadians saying they trusted him in May, down slightly from 40 per cent in January.

MacLellan said Poilievre’s results were surprising.

“They spent tens of millions of dollars, he was travelling back and forth across the country, speaking to large crowds of people, and yet his trust score did not move,” he said.

While 91 per cent of Liberal supporters said they trust Carney, only 11 per cent of them said they trust Poilievre. And while 80 per cent of Conservatives said they trust Poilievre, just 23 per cent said they trust Carney.

Fifty-one per cent of Albertans said they trust Poilievre, while 41 per cent said they trust Carney. Among people in B.C., 34 per cent said they trust Poilievre, while 58 per cent trust Carney. Only 27 per cent of Quebecers said they trust Poilievre, while 52 per cent trust Carney. Forty-two per cent of Ontarians said they trust Poilievre, while 55 trust Carney.

The polling industry’s professional body, the Canadian Research Insights Council, says online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error because they do not randomly sample the population.

MacLellan said that while Carney has the trust of a range of people, the Conservative leader does not.

“Poilievre … has very little room to grow,” he said. “He’s got high, high trust among Conservative supporters but then he’s got quite low trust among all the other party voters.”

MacLellan said Carney’s “trust coalition” includes a large number of women and voters over age 55, which is not surprising given how those demographics supported him during the campaign. He said Carney’s trust scores are lowest in the Prairies and suggested that Carney can grow in that area by addressing economic issues and being effective on the world stage.

MacLellan said the public’s trust in Carney likely has to do with confidence in his abilities, given his background in business and as governor of two national banks.

“I think it’s a package of reasons that all tie back to respect for his accomplishments and confidence in his ability to guide the country through a very difficult economic period,” he said. “I think Mr. Carney has earned this trust deservedly and now he’s got an opportunity to nurture it and see what he can do.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 20, 2025.

Catherine Morrison, The Canadian Press