Trump says a U.S. government shutdown is ‘likely’ — here’s what could happen

WASHINGTON — U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday that a federal government shutdown is “likely,” with Congress deadlocked ahead of a midnight deadline to pass legislation to keep it running.

“Nothing is inevitable, but I would say it’s probably likely,” Trump told reporters.

Democrats and Republicans blame each other for causing the shutdown, which would result in many government agencies coming to a standstill and hundreds of thousands of public servants being furloughed.

Republicans have claimed the bill to extend federal funds for seven weeks is not controversial. Democrats have said they won’t support the legislation unless it includes an extension for expiring health care benefits.

Senate Democrat leader Chuck Schumer said the Republicans had plenty of time to negotiate health care spending before the deadline but have refused to consider any type of compromise.

Republicans, including Speaker Mike Johnson and Trump, are repeating a misleading claim that Democrats want to give health care benefits to “illegal aliens” — even though unauthorized immigrants are not legally eligible for those programs.

It’s not clear yet how the funding stoppage might affect Canadians. It could cause issues for travellers, who may face longer lines at airports and closures at national parks.

“It’s possible that getting in and out of the country will be made more difficult, that they will they will use this to reduce staff at border crossings,” said Matthew Lebo, a political-science professor at Western University in London, Ont.

The American Immigration Lawyers Association said that while Customs and Border Protection is deemed an essential government service and would continue its work, processing of applications filed at the border may be affected.

It also said there may be disruptions in consular operations.

The shutdown is not expected to stop Trump’s massive tariff agenda. The Department of Homeland Security has said tariffs will continue to be collected during the funding lapse.

Canada is being hit with 35 per cent tariffs on goods not compliant under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement on trade, called CUSMA. It is also being slammed by separate duties on steel, aluminum, automobiles and copper.

There have been government shutdowns before; two of them happened during the first Trump administration. They can last hours, days or weeks.

“It’s definitely gotten more common and the brinksmanship has gotten a lot more common,” said Lebo.

America’s longest shutdown came two years into the first Trump administration, when the president demanded that Congress approve funding for his U.S.-Mexico border wall.

During the 35-day shutdown from late 2018 into early 2019, employees deemed essential — including air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration staff — were required to continue working without pay.

Transportation Security Administration agents, who provide security at airports, started calling in sick at a higher frequency, leading to significant airport delays.

There was also a three-day government shutdown earlier in 2018 and a 16-day shutdown in 2013 during the Obama administration.

Lebo said this shutdown is different because Trump might use the opportunity to fire employees — rather than just furlough them — as his administration attempts to shrink the size of the federal government.

It’s been reported the White House directed agencies to make plans for mass firings if the government did close down. Trump confirmed that might happen when he spoke to reporters outside the White House on Tuesday morning, but blamed the Democrats.

Government shutdowns are historically very unpopular among Americans. Lebo said he suspects the blame ultimately will fall on the party that has the power to stop the shutdown — and Republicans currently control the House, the Senate and the presidency.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 30, 2025.

— with files from The Associated Press

Kelly Geraldine Malone, The Canadian Press