Murray Wood: Who's hot... and who's not
Every Friday, Murray Wood takes a look at the week's news and decides who's hot... and who's not. This week's list inclu...
by Christopher Reynolds
MONTREAL — Like exhausted parents, Canada’s business community seems to be increasingly tuning out the temper tantrums coming from downstairs.
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- Trump ending trade talks unlikely to affect Canadian market, analyst says
- CRA must fix human responses before pursuing AI, experts say
- Ontario to pull ads that angered Trump after weekend World Series games
“Canada cheated and got caught!!!” Trump wrote in all caps on his social media platform Truth Social on Friday morning.
He claimed the ads, which play clips of former president Ronald Reagan warning about the risks of protectionism, are “trying to illegally influence” the U.S. Supreme Court ahead of hearings on the president’s sweeping tariffs.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford said Friday afternoon he would pause the ad campaign, but only after they run during the first two games of the World Series, reaching a massive American audience.
‘It’s not a sitcom’
“It couldn’t get any more tragically comical. If it was a sitcom, we’d be laughing,” said Preetika Joshi, assistant professor at McGill University’s Desautels Faculty of Management.
“But it’s not a sitcom.”
At first glance, corporate Canada seemed to shrug off the outburst. Canada’s main stock index rose half a percentage point on Friday. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce called for calm, with CEO Candace Laing stressing the “long game.”
Markets have paid little heed to trade tensions in recent months. After a dramatic drop in April, benchmark indexes in Canada and the U.S. have gone on to hit record highs.
But even as investors and companies become more desensitized to White House hysteria, the instability it stokes has added to the angst and frustration mounting among businesses over the past year.
Firms’ forecasts remain subdued despite a gradual improvement in sentiment, the Bank of Canada said this week in its quarterly business outlook survey.
“No one knows what’s going to happen a week from now,” Joshi said.
“This is creating speculation and so much uncertainty. And one thing we know that happens when there is uncertainty is businesses delay big investments.”
Joshi pointed to the multi-year timelines that major manufacturers such as automakers and steel mills base their plans on, with targets ranging from capital expenditures to pricing and procurement harder to pin down.
Thursday was not the first time the president has abruptly suspended trade talks. In June, he halted negotiations over a planned three per cent levy on the revenue of technology firms such as Google and Amazon, prompting Prime Minister Mark Carney to rescind the digital services tax.
The erratic nature of Trump’s trade pronouncements has taught Canadians to take his utterings with a grain of Windsor salt, including around negotiation breakdowns.
“His suggestion that it’s terminated is part and parcel with his sort of theatrics and hyperbole,” said Mahmood Nanji, a policy fellow at Western University’s Ivey Business School.
“The reaction from the Trump government is not a surprise … He uses every opportunity to get leverage in a negotiation.”
Nonetheless, sectors and regions suffering through steep tariffs on the auto, steel, aluminum and lumber industries remain particularly attuned to cross-border talks, he said.
A roller-coaster of trade
The roller-coaster of U.S. trade policy has veered, looped and barrel-rolled, starting the day Trump took office and signed an executive order to impose 25 per cent import taxes across the board.
That threat was delayed, then imposed, then worked around with an exemption for goods that comply with the Canada-U.S. Mexico-Agreement, the free trade pact from Trump’s first term that covers the vast majority of trade between the three countries.
But since then, steep tariffs have hit carmakers, metal producers and softwood lumber companies.
Wherever the tariff rates land, Canadians should brace themselves for an end to widespread free trade across the world’s longest border.
“The transition is not going to be easy,” said Nanji.
“We are in for very difficult and turbulent times in the next few months — not just globally, but more so with our U.S. partner. And that’s going to impact everybody in this country.”
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