Nova Scotia’s governing Tories maintain strong lead among decided voters: poll

HALIFAX — A new poll suggests Nova Scotia’s governing Progressive Conservatives were holding a steady lead over their opposition rivals more than a year after the party won an overwhelming election victory.

Toronto-based Liaison Strategies says a recent survey of 800 Nova Scotia voters found the Tories held a 19-point lead over the Opposition New Democrats, led by Claudia Chender.

Among decided and leaning voters, Premier Tim Houston’s Progressive Conservatives attracted 50 per cent support, followed by the NDP with 31 per cent and the Liberals under interim leader Iain Rankin at 18 per cent.

When compared with the election results in November 2024, both the Tories and the Liberals have lost ground to the NDP. Once the ballots had been counted last fall, the Tories had won 53 per cent of the popular vote, the Liberals had won 23 per cent and the NDP had won 22 per cent.

The survey results also suggest the New Democrats maintained a strong lead in the Halifax area, where the party won eight of its nine seats.

David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, issued a statement saying Houston’s Conservatives should take a closer look at what is happening in and around the provincial capital.

In Halifax, 57 per cent of respondents said Nova Scotia was heading in the wrong direction, compared with 32 per cent in the city who said the opposite. In the rest of the province, 62 per cent said Nova Scotia is headed in the right direction and 27 per cent thought otherwise.

As for Houston’s approval ratings, a majority of those surveyed in Halifax (54 per cent) said they disapproved of his leadership. In sharp contrast, 67 per cent of those surveyed outside the Halifax region said they approved.

“If you are the governing party, leading with 65 per cent outside Halifax is an asset, but trailing in Halifax is a warning sign,” Valentin said.

“Outside Halifax, voters are giving the PCs the benefit of the doubt. In Halifax, there is a much tougher read of where things are going.”

Tom Urbaniak, a political science professor at Cape Breton University, said the pervasive rural-urban split in Nova Scotia politics has been cultivated by Houston and his party.

“That’s part of the PC electoral calculus,” Urbaniak said in an interview Friday. “But that 60 per cent support in the rest of the province … is probably not a sustainable number in the long term.”

The professor said the Tories have sustained their electoral support by investing heavily in public services, especially health care. When the province’s population was growing rapidly, the government’s big spending was easily supported by rising tax revenue.

But the province’s population growth is levelling off. And in September, the government confirmed Nova Scotia’s projected budget deficit was expected to exceed $1 billion for the first time by the end of the 2025-26 fiscal year.

As well, Urbaniak said the economic promise associated with some major infrastructure projects, including offshore wind farms and other energy-related ventures, may not produce any real dividends until after the next electoral cycle.

Urbaniak said the latest poll is good news for the Tories. But he said it represents just a snapshot in time, a reflection of the fact that Nova Scotians are paying little attention to politics right now.

“Nova Scotians are not heavily focused on their provincial politicians, for the most part,” he said. “If we take the long view of Nova Scotia politics, it’s really hard to extrapolate from an opinion poll that comes out well before the start of a new electoral cycle.”

The poll drew responses through random calls to cellphones and landlines from Jan. 4 to Jan. 6. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Houston’s Tories won 43 out of 55 seats in the Nov. 26 provincial election. The NDP won nine, the Liberals held two and there was one Independent re-elected.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 9, 2026.

Michael MacDonald, The Canadian Press