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This story was first published on RealAgriculture.com on Jan. 8, 2026.
As corn producers head into another growing season, economic headwinds are intensifying — not from just one direction, but from both sides of the balance sheet.
While production costs remain stubbornly high, corn prices have sharply declined, squeezing farm margins and prompting a push for long-term demand growth.
Krista Swanson, chief economist with the U.S. National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), outlined the association’s upcoming Q1 economic outlook and what it signals for U.S. corn producers.
“Costs have been a huge focus of ours over the past six months,” she says, pointing to a plateau in production expenses that has held since 2022.
While some minor easing has occurred, the USDA projects the cost to grow an acre of corn will average $917 in 2026 — only 1 per cent lower than 2022 levels.
“Meanwhile, the market-year average price for corn is expected to be 37 per cent lower than 2022,” she adds.
Swanson noted fertilizer makes up about a third of operating costs and draws much attention, but increases in seed, pesticides, land, and machinery are also significant.
From an economist’s perspective, she warned that continued government payments, such as the USDA’s recent $44/acre “bridge” program, may also inadvertently contribute to price rigidity for those same inputs.
Beyond costs, Swanson is focused on the demand side, where new market opportunities could change the trajectory.
While year-round E15 ethanol remains a top short-term goal, she says longer-term strategies are being developed.
“Ethanol isn’t just a motor fuel … there are opportunities in maritime fuels, sustainable aviation fuel, and bioproducts,” she explained.
Diversification is another bright spot. Roughly 40 per cent of U.S. corn exports go to Mexico, but Swanson says the broader export pie is well-divided, with markets like Japan, Colombia, and South Korea contributing to feed and fuel demand.
As producers weigh planting decisions for 2026, the high cost of corn production versus soybeans looms large.
Still, futures price ratios and farmer preferences continue to favour corn. Whether that holds, Swanson says, will be a key trend to watch as the new crop year unfolds.
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