Former U.S. State Department official optimistic CUSMA will be renewed

CALGARY — Countries that show the most backbone are the ones best able to withstand belligerent U.S. trade policy, said a former U.S. State Department official who expressed optimism the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement will be renewed.

Edward Fishman, author of “Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare,” shared his outlook Wednesday during a luncheon hosted by the University of Calgary’s Haskayne School of Business.

The Columbia University adjunct professor said he can imagine Canadians feel like “sitting ducks” as their closest trading partner bombards adversaries and allies alike with tariff threats.

But he said the trading relationship doesn’t just flow one way and the U.S. would suffer significant economic harm if trade with Canada were to be cut off.

Fishman said U.S. political and business leaders — even those with a conservative bent — feel strongly about the importance of cross-border trade and are likely to temper President Donald Trump’s daily whims.

“While you might not be able to trust the specific individual, I do think that, ultimately, there’s preponderance of support for open trade between the United States, Canada and Mexico,” he told reporters.

Fishman said in an onstage discussion that resolve, resilience and a willingness to retaliate are the best ways to respond to U.S. tariffs.

India showed resolve in the face of 50 per cent U.S. tariffs, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi refusing to “scurry to Trump and get ready to make a deal the way the European Union did a couple of months earlier,” Fishman said.

“He galvanized public support to endure some short-term pain.”

Brazil best embodied resilience, posting its best year for exports in 2025 despite a 50 per cent U.S. tariff. It did so by finding new markets for its beef, coffee and other products.

The bulk of Canada’s energy exports go to the United States and there’s been a push to further expand their reach into Asian markets with a new pipeline to the West Coast. Fishman is optimistic about the Canada-U.S. relationship, but said it does make sense for Canada to “have some level of optionality” by seeking out new trading partners.

The world leaders that have successfully stood up to Trump, like Modi, weren’t necessarily more wily than Prime Minister Mark Carney. They just had an easier task with less of their trade exposed to the U.S. market, Fishman said.

The idea of retaliation makes many countries uncomfortable, but Fishman said China fought back effectively.

“The single biggest geo-economic story of 2025 bar none was not the ‘liberation day’ tariffs. It was China’s export controls on rare earth elements on the United States,” said Fishman.

“I think it really rattled the Trump administration. And it showed, frankly, that when countries push back, they can actually establish some level of deterrence.”

He later told reporters that winning at economic warfare isn’t necessarily about which country’s economy performs better but which country can best weather the downside.

“I do think that in some ways China revealed the Achilles heel of the United States economic warfare policy in 2025, which is our low pain tolerance at a political level.”

Canada imposed some retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. last year, but the bulk have been removed.

Canada’s ability to knuckle down and endure U.S. trade attacks is hampered by how regionally varied its economy is, said Robert Johnston, director of energy and natural resources policy with the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy.

“Alberta hasn’t really been impacted the way that Ontario has,” he told reporters, citing the hard-hit manufacturing sector as an example. “That’s the challenge, that the pain doesn’t seem to be evenly distributed.”

Jackie Forrest, executive director of the ARC Energy Research Institute, said that’s why provincial leaders need to get on the same page.

“That’s one of the issues that’s slowing us down. Carney is at least bringing them together frequently and we need to keep doing that to get that alignment.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 11, 2026.

Lauren Krugel, The Canadian Press