Ottawa won’t say if it penalized Gripen jets in 2021 analysis

OTTAWA — National Defence is refusing to disclose how it analyzed competing fighter jet bids after a Swedish media report suggested the evaluation was weighted against Saab’s Gripen E.

Citing confidential sources, the Swedish business publication Affarsvarlden reported that Ottawa added a risk coefficient to its analysis that significantly undermined the Gripen’s test scores because it was still a new series aircraft.

The report comes after the federal government’s internal 2021 scorecard, revealing the topline totals from the analysis, was leaked to Radio-Canada in the fall.

That document shows the American F-35 blowing the Swedish Gripen out of the water, with the F-35 scoring 95 per cent on overall military capabilities while the Gripen scored just 33 per cent.

The full report is not public and its partial leak kicked off an internal investigation to determine who released it because sensitive commercial information was involved.

When The Canadian Press asked National Defence if a significant amount of risk-weighting was applied to the Gripen, spokesperson Kened Sadiku said in an emailed statement the government “cannot comment on, or disclose details, related to the evaluation of bids” and it must “preserve the integrity of the procurement process.”

Sierra Fullerton, Saab Canada’s communications and public affairs lead, said the company would not comment on the Swedish media reports.

“We can confirm that Saab met or exceeded all of the stringent requirements for capability, interoperability and security set out in the Canadian fighter evaluation in 2021,” Fullerton said in an emailed statement. “We remain convinced that Gripen would be a very good fit for Canada.”

She also said the technology for the Gripen has continued to evolve since 2021 and pointed to a 2025 test flight that saw the fighter jet flown autonomously using a third-party AI agent.

In a statement, a spokesperson for Lockheed Martin said its F-35 was chosen in a fair and open competition.

Lockheed Martin’s statement added that 20 nations have chosen the F-35, and “it has won the capability assessment for every fighter competition it has been in so far.”

At stake behind the cloak-and-dagger leaks and questions about grading is big business, international reputations — and the crucial question of whether Canada should plow ahead with plans to buy a large fleet of F-35s or opt for a mixed fleet that includes a contingent of Gripens.

For nearly a year, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government has been reviewing whether to buy a fleet of 88 F-35s. The government had said it would finish that analysis by the fall but has provided no updates.

Canada has only committed financially to the first batch of 16 F-35 jets.

Saab, which is trying to sell the federal government on a fleet of Global Eye radar-surveillance planes, was one of two finalists in the fighter jet competition.

That competition ended in 2023 when Ottawa signed the agreement with the U.S. government and Lockheed Martin.

The review was launched in the early days of the Carney government amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war.

Saab launched a charm offensive last year in Canada, reviving its previous offers and floating the prospect of setting up a Gripen production hub in Canada that could come with some 10,000 jobs.

Alex McColl, who wrote his 2018 master’s thesis calling for Canada to buy a Gripen fleet, said the partial leak of the scoring doesn’t tell the full story.

“There was no explanation of how the scores were made. There was no highlighting of any risk deduction. I believe that the low score is explained by the risk deduction,” he said.

McColl obtained documents in 2020 that showed how the government was drafting its evaluation scenarios, which he said he believes would have favoured the F-35.

Tom Lawson, a former chief of the defence staff who supports the F-35 deal, said there’s no doubt the combat capability of the Lockheed jet was well ahead of Saab’s Gripen.

“What a wonderful thing to unload on Canadians, to say, ‘If we held the competition again today, we would match up much better,’ because they know we’re not going to have another competition,” he said.

Lawson said polling suggests a majority of Canadians would be on board with a mixed fleet.

While he said he believes that’s a bad idea, he thinks the federal government is smart to hold off on its decision as Canada and the U.S. are primed to enter negotiations this year to renew the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement on trade.

Pete Hoekstra, the U.S. ambassador to Canada, told CBC News in January that if Canada doesn’t buy all 88 F-35s, the North American defence pact Norad would have to be altered. He also called the Gripen an inferior product.

The F-35 procurement has been in the works for more than a decade and has been plagued by politicization and delays.

The Conservatives want the Carney government to push ahead with the full F-35 fleet order, while the NDP has argued for scrapping the contract entirely and opting for the Saab jets.

It’s clear what the military wants.

Air Force Commander Lt.-Gen. Jamie Speiser-Blanchet told the House of Commons defence committee in January that the F-35 was selected for its “advanced stealth capabilities, data and sensor fusion and increased lethality.”

“The F-35 is the only fifth-generation advanced technology fighter aircraft available to Canada, and it was selected in the competition that was conducted by the government of Canada,” she said.

“It is the only one, at this moment, that can meet all of the most advanced adversary threats we are seeing that are being promulgated and advanced technologically by Russia and China.”

The first Canadian F-35 are set to be delivered to Luke Air Force Base in Arizona in 2026, and the first bound for Canada is scheduled to arrive at CFB Cold Lake in 2028.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 1, 2026.

Kyle Duggan and Sarah Ritchie, The Canadian Press