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Filling up continues to be painful for Saskatchewan drivers, as the war in the Middle East drives volatility in oil prices.
Benchmark crude prices had soared to their highest levels since 2022, reaching close to $120 a barrel before settling back down to below $90.
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“Still a subtle increase in the wholesale price of gasoline, and that could send prices up a little bit more,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for Gas Buddy, said Monday afternoon, “but I’d be hopeful that based on where we are at the moment, with how oil prices have settled down, there’s not necessarily another spike coming after that.”
According to Gas Buddy, the average price for regular gas in Regina Monday was 146.8 cents a litre, up 14 cents in a week.
De Haan said that average could push past the $1.50 a litre mark before stabilizing, and he doesn’t expect another spike in crude prices — unless the situation in the Middle East sees another escalation.
“I think we’ll stop short for now, but there is a possibility that if oil prices do close above that $100 a barrel mark in the next few days that we we certainly could go beyond the $1.50 a litre mark later this week, if that happens,” he said.
“But for now, it’s obviously very difficult to make heads or tails of what comes next.”
He said if there was a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, lasting at least a week, that could lead to oil prices staying in the triple digits. But he’s optimistic about reports some ships are getting through by turning off their transponders.
Another bit of good news relates to the price of diesel.
“Diesel prices actually fell a couple cents here today, so that may put a little bit of downward pressure on diesel. It probably won’t show up very soon, though, given that we’re only talking about a fraction of a penny a litre here,” De Haan said.
“But the good news is that diesel prices, which were earlier in the day up about seven cents a litre, have come all the way back down.”
Crude prices around $100 a barrel would translate to gas prices of around $1.55 a litre. De Haan doesn’t expect the price at the pumps to reach 2022-level prices of over $2.
“I don’t see that in the cards yet. But again, you know, even an analyst can’t really predict exactly the next political movements that are going to happen in the Middle East and the pressure that’s building,” he said.
“We can only analyze the situation as we see. I don’t necessarily think that we have to worry about the contention of $2 a litre fuel just yet.
“But also, you know, if you would have asked me two weeks ago where we’d be today, I probably wouldn’t have said that exactly.”
— with files from The Canadian Press
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