Spring nears, but Sask. weather might be ‘touch and go:’ Climatologist

With spring less than two weeks away, the weather could be a bit “touch and go” in Saskatchewan.

That is according to Environment Canada senior climatologist, David Phillips, who told the Greg Morgan Morning Show there is no rush to spring.

“March might actually be a little bit of touch and go with whether it’s going to be a cool month or a little bit warmer than normal, but it looks like it’s going to be a little cooler,” said Phillips.

“It’s not going to be frigid and tough to deal with but compared to what you’ve had, it may just be a little cooler.

Phillips said it appears that the southern part of the province will likely see normal to slightly warmer than normal temperatures for the rest of this month, with the real warm-up coming next month.

“In the central-northern part of the province, it still looks like it’s going to be cooler there,” said Phillips. “I’m comparing April with other Aprils, or March’s other Marchs, not the middle of January. So we know the temperatures for what we call normal go way up there when you start getting the sun.

“Clearly, we’re on the upswing,” Phillips added, “but it’s still just a little bit to go before there’s the patio breakout.”

When it comes to snow, Phillips pointed to historical data from the past 30 years in Regina, which showed that, on average, March, April, and May saw around 30 per cent of the annual snowfall.

“This is not a forecast; this is saying the last 30 years, look at March, April, May, in Regina. Not to scare you, but this is just an average, not saying it is going to happen this year, but you still have about 30 centimetres of snow to shovel, plow, and push,” he explained. “Less than a third of your annual snowfall is yet to fall in March, April, May; in 14 days, you are going to see white stuff. These aren’t apple blossoms or cherry blossoms falling; these will be snowflakes.”

He explained there is still a little ways to go with winter weather, before spring-like temperatures come back in full swing.

“But when the winter comes back, it tends to be not as intensely, severely cold, and it also doesn’t last very long,” Phillips shared. “Two or three days, and you’re back into the warm air. A little bit of this back and forth and up and down is really the pattern, not sort of three weeks of a polar vortex.”

Phillips said it comes after a fairly mild winter, with the only month this past winter that was colder than normal being December.

“I think almost half the days or nights were below -20 C, but November was warmer than normal by about 3 C, January was about a 1.5 C warmer, and February was on fire – almost 6 C warmer than normal. You had 16 melting days in February, normally you would get five,” Phillips said.