Former budget watchdog Page says Ottawa can’t rag the puck on NATO 2035 spending math

Former federal spending watchdog Kevin Page remains unconvinced by the prime minister’s explanation of why Ottawa hasn’t yet presented a fiscal road map to meet the new NATO spending commitments.

Page, who was Canada’s first parliamentary budget officer and now heads the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy at the University of Ottawa, said Ottawa has been not fiscally transparent with its math. He said Canada must soon show how it plans to significantly ramp up defence spending through to 2035.

Read more:

• Federal defence minister says Snowbirds will be grounded as aging aircraft replaced
• Snowbirds aerobatic team grounded until early 2030s while new planes purchased
• U.S. says it’s pausing long-standing military board with Canada

“It’s a major question mark,” Page tells The Canadian Press in an interview, saying it raises uncertainty about how committed Canada is to meeting the targets after failing to hit the two per cent mark for so long.

“How is Canada going to finance this, and will it be able to meet its targets as well?”

NATO members met last year in The Hague and agreed to spending the equivalent of five per cent of GDP on defence by 2035.

That target really amounts to 3.5 per cent — still tens of billions in added spending each year — since 1.5 per cent can be spent on related areas, such as transport infrastructure.

But federal fiscal updates have yet to chart the numbers that far out, past 2030 — something Page said should be spelled out this coming fall in the next budget.

Prime Minister Mark Carney said earlier this week that if Ottawa put out a full plan last year, it would already be dated because of how quickly modern warfare is changing.

He specifically pointed to the rapid advancements in drone and AI technology seen throughout the Ukraine war as a case-in-point, and said he wants to spend the funds wisely amid global uncertainty.

“There’s a couple of reasons why we don’t immediately specify that … and the core reason is we want to spend the money well,” Carney said on Tuesday, when asked by The Canadian Press to justify not yet producing a clear path to achieving five per cent by 2035.

“If we had sat down even in June last year and mapped out what, with all due respect, the armed forces would have thought how they would have spent 1.5 per cent of GDP on defence, it would have looked a lot like how they would have answered that question five years ago. We’re not going to do that.”

Carney also said the NATO alliance agreed the new spending targets would be reviewed in 2030 anyway.

But Page said the government can always adjust its figures as military procurement plans change, and public pressure will ramp up on Ottawa if the figures aren’t included in the fall budget.

“You can’t say that the reason I’m not going to give you a number is because I want to do it well. Does that fly with you? It doesn’t fly with me,” Page said.

“It’s a large part of the overall amount of spending and it’s the fastest growing part. I’d feel more confident in the government that we’re going to live up to commitments if I saw the allocation and plans.”

He said Canadians would reasonably assume the Carney government would change the allocations over time as plans adjust.

While Canada is under pressure from the Pentagon amid trade negotiations to show how it will meet the higher spending target, Page says Canadians deserve to know more about the government’s intentions. That’s because it raises questions about how Ottawa will bankroll it — such as through growing the deficit, or hiking taxes.

Don Drummond, an adjunct professor at the School of Policy Studies at Queen’s University, said there’s a core distinction to be made: the difference between drafting a concrete plan to spend the money, and publishing simple spending projections.

“If you want to tell me, as a Canadian, what our fiscal prospects are in 2031 and 2032, I need that defence number in there,” Drummond said.

“I’m willing to accept the composition of how you actually disperse that money may change by circumstances, but you’re committing to 3.5 per cent. That number needs to be in there. It’s just one line.”

He expects Finance would already have those projections internally, but admitted he believes the government could scrape by one more year politically before being forced to disclose the projections.

“I regret to say this, but I think they could survive another budget without laying it out. That would probably be the end of it because this next budget will cover 2031. I think maybe you could get away with that,” he said.

“But I don’t think you can cover 2032 and still have defence spending at two per cent. If you’re at two per cent in 2032, you aren’t going onto 3.5 in 2035.”

The NATO commitment includes steadily ratcheting up defence to 3.5 per cent — not just suddenly hitting the mark in the final year.

Ottawa meantime insists it will meet the latest NATO commitment after finally reaching the last one this past year.

Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand said in Helsingborg, Sweden on her way into meetings with her alliance counterparts Friday Canada is “on track to meet five per cent of GDP by 2035.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 22, 2026.