Almost half of Calgary Chamber members may leave if Alberta separates: poll

CALGARY — A poll commissioned by the Calgary Chamber of Commerce suggests almost half of its members are prepared to move their businesses out of Alberta if the province votes to separate from Canada.

Probe Research conducted the online survey of 137 chamber members between June 8 and June 22. The poll comes as Albertans prepare for an October vote on 10 referendum questions, including one on whether the province should remain in Canada or begin the process of holding a separation referendum at a later date.

Forty-eight per cent of respondents said they are very or somewhat likely to relocate if the separation process moves forward, while 39 per cent said they are unlikely to do so. Thirteen per cent are unsure.

“I actually looked at that number and my eyebrows went up and I thought, ‘That is a significant number and that would be devastating for Calgary,'” said Deborah Yedlin, president and CEO of the chamber.

Nineteen per cent of respondents reported slowing business expansion plans within Alberta, while 15 per cent are actively looking to relocate.

Almost two-thirds of respondents reported that talk of separatism is already having a negative impact on their businesses, while around three-quarters see no tangible benefit from a break from Canada. Ninety-one per cent said they are closely following the referendum discussion.

Alberta has long benefited from its reputation of being an entrepreneurial, low-tax and resource-rich place to do business, Yedlin said.

“But businesses make their decisions based on certainty and confidence and this will undermine all of it — no certainty and no confidence,” she said. “Whatever Alberta advantage we had will disappear.”

The Chamber also commissioned an analysis from University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe, which found one in three Albertan workers — around 900,000 people — would be exposed to disruptions in trade with the rest of Canada and international markets.

Drawing from the impacts of the United Kingdom’s split from the European Union, Tombe is also estimating a six per cent hit to Alberta’s gross domestic product per capita if the province separates, along with a reduction of 175,000 jobs and a $62-billion cut to the provincial economy per year.

A working paper published in November of last year by the U.S.-based National Bureau of Economic Research found that by 2025, Brexit had reduced the U.K.’s gross domestic product by six to eight per cent compared to what would have been the case if it had stayed in the EU. Investment slipped by an estimated 12 to 18 per cent, and employment and productivity each by three to four per cent, the paper said.

The British Chambers of Commerce has calculated that trade deals the U.K. has inked since Brexit have clawed back just one-tenth of the four per cent GDP loss the Office of Budget Responsibility predicted in 2020 would be caused by the split within 15 years.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who has said she counts herself in the “stay” camp, shared some preliminary math for startup costs at a news conference earlier this month. The province has also commissioned an economic study and tabbed an expert advisory panel on the potential costs of quitting Confederation.

An independent Alberta would have to take on its share of Canada’s national debt, along with NATO commitments to defence spending and programs like Old Age Security and the Child Tax Benefit. And then there’s the infrastructure for a national pension program, employment insurance and border control. Trade agreements would need to be renegotiated. Alberta would need its own postal service, along with regulators for telecoms, railways and banks.

All told, Smith said transitional costs could tally up to around $400 billion, with $25 billion to $50 billion in ongoing annual costs.

Separatist leaders disagree, saying an independent Alberta would come with no more than $5.7 billion in startup costs and would post surpluses once tax revenue stops flowing to Ottawa.

The conversation around separation also needs to transcend the economic arguments, as important as those are, Yedlin said.

“There are reasons for people in Alberta to feel like they haven’t been heard and to feel they’ve been taken for granted from a federal perspective. And my response to that is, ‘That’s true.’ I grew up in this province, too,” she said.

But she said the relationship with Ottawa has shifted, with a memorandum of understanding signed last year on a wide array of energy matters, including a path forward for a new west coast oil pipeline.

“Let’s build on what we’ve established and how we’ve changed the trajectory of what’s possible.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 24, 2026.

Lauren Krugel, The Canadian Press