Fuel uncertainty: Why drivers should expect more fluctuation at the pumps

With the ongoing conflict between Iran and the U.S. causing ripples in the oil market and pushing fuel prices higher, drivers are left still wondering how much their next trip to the gas station will cost.

While many people associate rising gas prices with supply shortages, one expert said the bigger issue is uncertainty.

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Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst for En-Pro international Inc., said the possibility of disruptions to global oil supplies is enough to rattle the market.

“Insurers, investors, shippers of crude (and refined products) don’t bank on uncertainty. They look for certainty,” he said.

That’s why prices can climb before any actual supply is interrupted, McKnight said. Markets react to risk, and right now, he said, there’s plenty of it.

Global tensions aren’t just caused by fear and uncertainty, McKnight noted.

“The real problem is the supply problem caused by geopolitics, which is a fancy word for politicians getting involved in the supply and demand of crude oil, gasoline, diesel,” he said.

“(But also politicians) getting involved in the price of gasoline that consumers pay at the pump.”

He said because of this, today’s prices may not stick around for long as overseas tensions continue to develop.

McKnight added he expects another increase could be around the corner as the markets respond.

“Over the next few days, you can probably see prices jump by about six to seven cents a litre,” he said

McKnight said the speed at which those changes reach local gas stations often surprises consumers. However, the connection between global oil prices and the neighbourhood pump is much quicker than many people realize.

“When you see a price spike in crude (oil, diesel and gasoline) it’s two days before the consumer actually sees it,” he explained.

McKnight believes the market is entering a period where uncertainty will become the norm and as political tensions continue to evolve, he expects fuel prices to rise and fall.

“I can’t see any stability in the price of crude or any refined products until January of 2027,” he said.

For people planning a summer road trip or spending long days on the road for work, McKnight suggested budgeting a little extra for fuel may be the safest practice.

“Grab the low prices while you can, because they certainly aren’t going to last,” he said.