Murray Wood: Trump's potash claim is more 'art' than deal
The U.S. president says a deal is in the works to buy cheap potash from Belarus, but Murray Wood says Donald Trump proba...
REGINA — As U.S. President Donald Trump works on a deal to buy potash from Belarus to lessen dependence on Canadian fertilizer, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe is warning that the eastern European country has blood on its hands.
“More than 40 countries – Canada and its allies – have sanctions against Belarus for supporting war criminal (Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s invasion of Ukraine,” Moe said on social media Monday.
“Buying blood potash from Belarus is supporting Russian aggression.
“It’s wrong and it doesn’t make sense.”
Trump announced the would-be agreement with Belarus in a social media post Monday.
He said prices would be “substantially less” than what American buyers pay Canadian exporters and “very good news” for American farmers and ranchers. Potash is a key component of fertilizers used by farmers.
Belarus, a close Russian ally, has aided Moscow in its attacks on Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion four years ago. Potash prices skyrocketed after the invasion but have come down since, though they remain above prewar levels.
Moe said potash from Belarus is unethical.
“Does anyone believe Belarusian blood potash shipped through Russia is going to be more affordable, more sustainable or more ethical than potash shipped from Saskatchewan – right here in North America?” he said.
Industry analysts also say Trump’s proposal would likely be difficult and costly.
“Belarus is one of the major potash producers, but I don’t think it has some stock of potash in reserve that President Trump is going to be able to access,” said Erin Weir, an economist who studies potash and a former Saskatchewan NDP member of Parliament.
Weir said there are also issues with transporting it out of the landlocked country that no longer has access through its neighbour, Lithuania, which has closed border crossings, he added.
Saskatchewan, the world’s largest producer of potash, has the advantage of being on the same continent as the United States, said Weir.
“It’s possible for us to put potash on trains to the American states that are growing corn,” he said. “That’s a lot easier than trying to ship potash to an American port and then put it on trains.”
Even President Alexander Lukashenko has acknowledged his country’s limitations. He said in a Monday news release that Belarus can’t supply the United States with large volumes of potash.
“Even if we wanted to supply (potash) to other, Western markets, we simply do not have those volumes — everything is contracted,” Lukashenko said.
Asim Biswas, an agriculture professor at the University of Guelph in Ontario, said Trump’s comment creates some uncertainty, as there are no details on the proposal.
“If something happens, this is of course going to impact our businesses, going to affect our fertilizer industry,” he said.
Andrew Scheer, the federal Conservative house leader, also said his party condemns Trump’s threat.
“Belarus is a communist dictatorship and its government has a terrible human rights record,” he said in a statement. “The suggestion that Belarus would be a better trading partner than Canada is ridiculous.”
B.C. Premier David Eby said on social media that he stands with Moe in protecting Canadian workers and industries.
“Every day Trump attacks another Canadian industry. Today, he’s targeting Canadian potash which comes primarily from Saskatchewan and ships out of BC ports.”
Canada and the United States are embroiled in a trade war with tit-for-tat tariffs on a wide range of products.
While potash remains exempt from U.S. levies, Trump has said his country doesn’t need Canadian goods, even though Canada supplies it with critical resources that it doesn’t produce.
A report from the U.S. Geological Survey says the United States imported 80 per cent of its potash from Canada from 2021 to 2024, followed by smaller number of imports from Russia, Israel and other countries.
Natural Resources Canada says nearly half of Canada’s potash exports go to the United States, worth $4.2 billion.
Pam Schwann, president of the Saskatchewan Mining Association, said she questions how cost-effective it would be for the United States to get Belarusian potash.
“The costs are what the costs are,” she said. “Our potash mines are price-takers in a global market. They don’t set the price. It’s what’s negotiated. So, I would anticipate that would be the same way with any Belarusian potash.”
Schwann said the industry will continue to support the needs of its American customers while expanding to other markets.
“You have to pay attention to (what Trump is saying), but not overreact and think that all of our potash that’s moving into the United States is going to be displaced by Belarusian potash,” she said.
“It’s just not possible.”
Weir added that Canadians should take Trump’s comments with “a grain of salt, or perhaps a grain of potash.”
“There’s a lot of demand for potash in the world. And potash production is concentrated in very few jurisdictions, and that actually gives Saskatchewan a lot of bargaining power,” he said.
Fertilizer Canada said in a statement that Canadian potash has been a reliable supplier for North American farmers and that the integrated supply chain has supported affordability.
Amid the trade war, some premiers have argued Canada should get tougher on Trump by using its natural resources as leverage.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford has said Canada should block potash and oil shipments to the United States.
Moe previously said Saskatchewan is opposed to halting potash exports. He has also said he’s against any export taxes, arguing it would crush the province’s economy and cause fertilizer prices to increase.
Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck said Monday that Trump’s latest comment amounts to an attack on the province’s potash industry.
She urged Moe to provide “a real response” to Trump.
The province recently imposed a 50 per cent retaliatory tax on U.S. booze.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 21, 2026.
Jeremy Simes, The Canadian Press
