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A major political shakeup in British Columbia could have implications well beyond the province’s borders, including for Saskatchewan’s energy sector and hopes of getting more resources to the West Coast.
The B.C. Conservatives, led by interim leader Lorne Doerkson, are set to form a majority government after Saturday’s provincial election, ending nine years of NDP rule.
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Preliminary results show the Conservatives winning 64 of the province’s 93 seats, compared with 27 for the NDP and two for the Greens.
For Saskatchewan, the change could mean a more receptive government on pipelines and resource development.
Jim Farney, director of the School of Policy Studies at Queen’s University, said the Conservatives have already signalled a different approach from outgoing premier David Eby.
“They’ve been quite clear they’re going to be more pro-development, more pro-pipeline, and so that would pull B.C. more into the national consensus,” Farney said.
The new government has promised to expand energy development and reduce regulatory barriers, potentially changing British Columbia’s role in discussions about getting Canadian resources to international markets.
However, Farney cautioned that a change in government doesn’t necessarily mean projects will move forward without complications.
The Conservatives have also promised to repeal British Columbia’s Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act, legislation intended to align provincial laws with the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.
The province has also been dealing with court decisions involving Indigenous title claims, including a ruling recognizing Aboriginal title over land that includes privately held property.
“The B.C. Conservatives have made quite an issue about kind of reversing those steps,” Farney said.
“I think it will make the politics around getting the necessary First Nations permissions and buy-in for some of these changes probably harder in the short term anyway.”
While the new government’s position could create opportunities for Western Canadian resource development, Farney said obtaining Indigenous support will remain an important part of moving projects forward.
The election also raises questions about Western Canada’s political direction, where Saskatchewan and Alberta already have Conservative-led provincial governments.
But Farney said it’s too early to draw sweeping conclusions from the result.
“I think we have to wait and see a little bit more what type of conservative leader the premier of B.C. is,” he said.
He pointed to divisions within Conservative parties in other provinces, including Alberta and Manitoba, as reasons the broader political picture remains uncertain.
“The Saskatchewan Party is pretty settled down, but the inner workings of the Manitoba Tories are pretty much up in the air too,” Farney said.
The B.C. election came after Eby called an early vote in September, nearly two years before the next scheduled provincial election.
Farney believes the premier saw an opportunity to exploit divisions within the Conservative Party, which had recently gone through a turbulent leadership change.
“Eby was not a popular premier, and I think called the election thinking ‘my opposition’s weak and it’s divided and I can take advantage of that’,” Farney said.
Instead, the Conservatives secured a majority, with Doerkson now preparing to become premier.
Farney also pointed to British Columbia’s finances and concerns about economic growth as factors that may have influenced voters.
“I think that that combination of wanting to be open to economic growth and and having a more balanced budget situation in in in B.C. probably probably really tipped things for the for the provincial electorate,” he said.
The result comes at a time when Farney believes voters are becoming less attached to political parties, making election outcomes increasingly difficult to anticipate.
“Voters are not terribly loyal to political parties anymore,” he said, adding that leadership changes and dissatisfaction with the political system can influence how people vote.
For Saskatchewan, attention now turns to how the incoming B.C. government approaches energy development, its relationships with other Western premiers and negotiations with First Nations.
While the election may create new opportunities for interprovincial co-operation, Farney said the full implications will depend on how the B.C. Conservatives govern.
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