Sarah Mills: American politics has become a wild rollercoaster ride
The blue wave of Democratic wins in the U.S. midterms provides no guarantee for any of the major players. Sarah Mills sa...
CALGARY — Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. will be able to determine its spending plans for 2027 once top oilsands producers, Ottawa and the Alberta government nail down final agreements on how to advance the Pathways carbon storage project while growing crude output, said company president Scott Stauth.
Oilpatch companies like Canadian Natural generally release spending plans for the following year as the current one draws to a close. This year, much of that work hinges on the outcome of intensive talks underway between industry players and the two orders of government.
“We’ll be looking forward to the completion of the definitive agreements, and that will enable us to get a good understanding of the fiscal plan. As we move forward, that will hopefully enable growth opportunities,” he said in an interview Thursday after the company reported third-quarter results.
Members of the Oil Sands Alliance, which includes Canadian Natural and four of its peers, reached a non-binding memorandum of understanding with Ottawa and the province in July. They set a Nov. 15 target to reach formal agreements with each of the companies.
Pathways involves a pipeline network that would carry carbon dioxide captured from various oilsands sites in northern Alberta to an underground storage hub near Cold Lake, Alta. Under a sweeping energy accord signed between Alberta and Ottawa a year ago, a new oilsands pipeline to the Pacific Coast is contingent on Pathways moving ahead, and vice versa.
The idea is for Pathways to offset some of the carbon dioxide emissions the proposed West Coast pipeline, Pacific Link, would enable through increased oilsands production.
In March of this year, Canadian Natural announced it would pause early work on its $8.25-billion Jackpine oilsands mine expansion as it waited for Ottawa to finalize environmental policies. The federal government has since firmed up its approach to industrial carbon pricing, methane emissions and regulatory reviews for major projects.
“We’ve worked on some engineering for the Jackpine Mine expansion,” Stauth said. “Pending the outcomes of the definitive agreement, we would look at letting everyone know where we’re at with that plan going forward.”
On an earlier call with analysts, Stauth said ensuring industry players and governments can reach the best outcome is more important than rushing to meet the Nov. 15 target.
“It’s more about focusing on ensuring that we get it right, than focusing on a particular day to get it completed and signed. And I would suggest that everyone’s working together in the right direction to try and accomplish it.”
In the July Pathways-centred MOU, governments agreed to pursue regulatory and fiscal policies that would spur oilsands growth, which in turn would ensure the pipeline from Alberta to a tanker port in southern British Columbia can be filled. Ottawa agreed to extending investment tax credits for certain carbon-capture equipment, while Alberta has agreed to “financial supports” to encourage oilsands growth, alluding recently to potential royalty incentives.
The other Oil Sands Alliance members are Suncor Energy, Cenovus, Imperial Oil and ConocoPhillips. On conference calls earlier this week and late last week, executives at Suncor, Cenovus and Imperial described the talks as productive, but cautioned that there is still much work left to do.
Earlier Thursday, Canadian Natural reported third-quarter net earnings of $3 billion, up from $600 million in the same quarter last year. The profit amounted to $1.45 per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30, versus a profit of 29 cents per diluted share a year ago.
On an adjusted basis, Canadian Natural says it earned $1.65 per diluted share in its latest quarter, up from 86 cents per diluted share in the same quarter last year.
Revenue for the quarter totalled $12.79 billion, up from $9.52 billion a year ago.
Production for the quarter totalled 1,651,720 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up from 1,620,261 boepd in the third quarter of 2025.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2026.
Companies in this story: (TSX:CNQ)
Lauren Krugel, The Canadian Press
