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TORONTO — Despite lagging real estate activity in the Greater Toronto Area this fall, improved certainty around borrowing costs and a change in the political dynamic south of the border have spurred hope that buyer sentiment could be set to turn, one broker says.
Home sales in the region were down in October compared with a year ago as the city’s real estate board said Wednesday that recent doubts around inflation, borrowing costs and the economy kept many potential buyers on the sidelines.
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board said 5,603 homes changed hands last month, down 7.9 per cent year-over-year, however sales rose 1.2 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The average selling price was $1,024,108, down 2.7 per cent year-over-year, while the composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 4.3 per cent.
“If a Canada-U.S. trade deal is reached, GTA residents could gain a clearer picture of the economic outlook,” TRREB president Daniel Steinfeld in a news release.
“Combined with a resolution to the conflict in the Middle East, this could help ease concerns about inflation and economic uncertainty, strengthen consumer confidence and renew interest in home ownership as we move into 2027.”
While those factors remain unsteady, buyers considering a move could find motivation from developments over the past week both in Canada and the United States, said Davelle Morrison, a broker with Bosley Real Estate Ltd.
After much speculation, the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time in more than three years last week. The quarter-point hike means the central bank’s policy rate, which influences the cost of borrowing for banks, businesses and consumers, now stands at 2.5 per cent.
While that will lead to higher rates on key loans like mortgages, Morrison said some buyers might see it as an opportunity to put in an offer before borrowing costs potentially climb even higher.
“Ultimately, I think if there are buyers out there who are thinking of buying, they should meet with their mortgage broker or bank now, go through the mortgage approval process and get some kind of a rate hold … so that way if rates do go up next year, then they’re protected,” she said.
The bank spent much of 2026 watching to see if higher global energy prices from war in the Middle East would spread to other parts of the consumer basket. Inflation ticked up to 3.1 per cent in September, largely due to high gas prices.
The central bank’s rate hike prompted Canada’s major banks to raise their prime rates from 4.45 per cent to 4.70 per cent. But Morrison said that usually translates to an increase of less than $100 for monthly mortgage payments, which shouldn’t scare off the majority of potential buyers on its own.
“So yes, rates increased, but they didn’t increase by a detrimental amount,” she said.
Meanwhile, those wary of making a home purchase while tensions between Canada and the United States continue to simmer might feel some relief Wednesday morning. Morrison described a sluggish fall market for real estate activity, in part because buyer sentiment has felt the chill of tariffs and uncertainty for jobs.
But she said some might be encouraged by results of the U.S. midterm elections, which saw the Democrats gain control of both houses of Congress.
“Maybe they feel that it’s going to improve the tariff situation and things won’t be so gloomy,” Morrison said.
“So now it’s a question of, ‘OK, does that put you in a better head space where you feel like now you’re willing to commit to purchasing a property?'”
There were 14,173 new listings on the market in October, down 11.9 per cent from last year. Active listings fell 10 per cent from October 2025, as total inventory across the GTA stood at 25,098 homes for sale.
Within the city of Toronto, TRREB said there were 2,184 sales last month, down 6.3 per cent from October 2025. Across the rest of the GTA, home sales decreased 8.9 per cent to 3,419.
All housing types saw lower sales year-over-year, led by an 11 per cent decline in townhouse sales, followed by a 10.4 per cent decrease in condo sales.
There were 8.1 per cent fewer semi-detached houses sold last month compared with a year ago, while the detached market saw a 4.4 per cent drop.
“GTA homebuyers continued to benefit from substantial negotiating power on price over the past year,” said TRREB chief information officer Jason Mercer.
“While borrowing costs have increased on the back of higher inflation, the impact on monthly mortgage payments has been mitigated by lower selling prices, helping keep affordability in check.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 4, 2026.
Sammy Hudes, The Canadian Press
