‘A lot of work’: Sask. struggling to hit 70 per cent vaccination mark

More than a week after the provincial government declared Saskatchewan was close enough to start the countdown on the end of the mask mandate and large gathering ban, the province still hasn’t got a full per cent of those eligible to take a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.

After the latest vaccination numbers were released Monday afternoon, only 69.8 per cent of Saskatchewan residents 12 and up had received a first dose. The provincial government has rounded that up, though, to 70 per cent.

As well, the new numbers for Monday had 981 people getting first doses while 11,414 people got their second. May 30 was the last time first doses outpaced second doses in daily reported numbers.

This struggle to get more people to take a first dose doesn’t bode well for the province getting to herd immunity, according to Dr. Nazeem Muhajarine, an epidemiologist in the department of community health and epidemiology at the University of Saskatchewan.

“We seem to be stuck just at that threshold and not able to push us over that hump, whereas pretty much every other province in Canada has comfortably gone past 70 per cent,” said Muhajarine.

Herd immunity is when enough people have immunity to a virus that it stops widespread transmission. Muhajarine said that will hit for COVID when between 80 and 85 per cent of the total population — not just those 12 and up — are fully vaccinated.

“We would need a lot of work. It would take a lot of work for us to get there,” said Muhajarine.

In the winter and spring, Saskatchewan may have been at the top of the heap of provinces in terms of getting people vaccinated but now the province is last among the provinces for percentage of population with at least one dose.

Despite that, Saskatchewan’s premier and health minister have been confident about vaccine numbers continuing to rise.

Last Monday, Premier Scott Moe said he was certain the 70 per cent mark would be achieved later that week.

And three weeks ago, when asked about concerns on vaccination rates and possible incentive programs, Minister Paul Merriman touted the strong start to the vaccine program and said the province has set good targets and will achieve them.

Muhajarine said he doesn’t know where the confidence on vaccine uptake is coming from. He thinks it’s entirely political.

“They have made a decision that, whatever it takes by hook or crook, that the province is going to open up at a certain date in July … It just seems like they are telling people what they think people like to hear,” he said.

Because of the early start to the countdown, the mask mandate and large gathering ban will both end with about 14,000 fewer people having a first dose than if the government had waited to get to a true 70 per cent.

Muhajarine is cautiously hopeful that case numbers will stay down and that people will act independently of the health orders and keep themselves safe with things like masking in public places, being vigilant about getting tested, and being careful about who they get together with.

“There’s no real reason right now, in July-August, to throw caution to the wind,” said Muhajarine.

Muhajarine says people should be talking about their vaccine status and that it should be second nature to share it — in part so people can make decisions about who to be around, but also to help people who are hesitant about the vaccine to change their minds.

He believes more messaging and education is needed to try to sway the 12 to 14 per cent of people he said are hesitant about getting a shot.

“I really do think that Premier Moe has sway on some people who might be hesitating or even refusing, and he should be addressing those people directly and telling them to do their civic duty to keep themselves, their family, their dear and loved ones and, by extension, everyone in Saskatchewan, safe,” said Muhajarine.

Moe has exhorted the non-vaccinated population, in increasingly strong words, to go out and get their shot.

“If you’re on the fence, this should really be one of the easiest decisions that you’ll ever make in your life,” Moe said when the reopen plan was released in early May.

“On one side of that fence, people are living. On the other side of that fence, people are dying. It’s quite simple for all of us.”

While some have been calling for a lottery to incentivize people to get vaccinated, Muhajarine doesn’t know if that’s a good way to spend the public’s money, and he doesn’t know if it would get those last 300,000 or so people to get a shot.