Trump’s return: What Canada can learn from the 2024 presidential campaign

WASHINGTON — Donald Trump smiled wide in front of cheering supporters after millions of Americans went to the polls, choosing the divisive Republican leader as the next president of the United States in an astonishing comeback that signalled an American turn to isolationism, protectionism and tariffs.

“We overcame obstacles that nobody thought possible and it is now clear that we’ve achieved the most incredible political thing. Look what happened, is this crazy?” Trump said on Nov. 6 in Florida, appearing shocked by wins in key battleground states.

“But it’s a political victory that our country has never seen before, nothing like this.”

Trump has not yet moved into the White House but his victory sent shockwaves around the world. Not even a month after the election, Trump brought back “Twitter diplomacy,” posting on social media threats of devastating 25 per cent tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

“That sense that Canada was a special friend and therefore was protected, I think is dead,” said Christopher Sands, director of the Canada Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington. “It’s still special but it’s not the bulletproof shield that we all thought it was.”

Bombshell political events in Ottawa this month have added even more uncertainty around the Canada-U.S. relationship. Chrystia Freeland’s sudden resignation as finance minister has touched off growing calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down, a move he is reflecting on over the holidays.

As the world prepares for a second Trump administration, experts say there are lessons to be learned from the tumultuous and unrelenting 2024 campaign.

The road to the ballot box was long and chaotic. Hark back to spring when many Americans, discontented by what they saw as a repeat of the 2020 election between Trump and President Joe Biden, weren’t engaged with either party.

Everything changed during the June 27 presidential debate. Backroom concerns about the Democrat’s age and mental acuity were on full display. Biden, with a raspy voice, stumbled over his words and lost his train of thought.

Questions swirled whether Biden could remain on the ticket.

A few weeks later, a gunman opened fire at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania. The image that surfaced after the assassination attempt was stark: Trump pumping his fist into the air with an American flag in the background as blood trickled down the side of his face.

It became a watershed moment, contrasting Trump rising strong against his diminished Democrat opponent.

Soon after, Biden bowed to pressure from his own party. He endorsed Kamala Harris, his second-in-command, as he dropped out of the race on July 21.

The vice-president moved quickly to shore up support and her early campaign built on the idea of “joy” and kitchen-table issues, using memes, celebrities and coconuts. While it reinvigorated Democrats, the excitement didn’t spread beyond the party’s base.

Harris continued to be dogged by the Biden administration’s legacy at the border and she was unable to persuade voters concerned about their pocketbooks during the 107-day campaign.

Trump successfully tapped into American’s fears about the economy and illegal immigration while promising to slash federal spending. He pledged sweeping tariffs and a retreat from international institutions.

“I will govern by a simple motto: Promises made, promises kept. We’re going to keep our promises,” Trump said in his victory speech.

A dismissive attitude about Trump also “died this year,” Sands said.

“Even though it took a long time, (there’s) a recognition that he does represent something genuine and it has political support.”

The American system of government is going through a once-in-a-generation shift, said Alasdair Roberts, a professor of public policy at University of Massachusetts Amherst. Ideas about what governments should be doing are changing in fundamental ways.

It happened in the 1930s with former president Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal programs to help people recover from the Great Depression. There was another shift in the 1980s under former president Ronald Reagan and the advent of market-oriented policies.

Trump has been able to ride a wave of dissatisfaction swelling from the global financial crisis that started in 2007. Data from Gallup shows people have felt the country is heading the wrong direction for at least 20 years.

The result: a deeply divided U.S.

Roberts said Canada will need to grapple with the fact its closest neighbour and largest trading partner will be “unstable and unpredictable for years.” Gambling Canada’s future on the notion of a shared special relationship is just “a recipe for disaster,” he added.

“We need to get our act together,” Roberts said.

That means more intensive diplomacy, he said. The federal government’s Team Canada connected with all levels of elected American officials in both parties for months ahead of the election and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau revived a cabinet committee on Canada-U.S. relations a little more than 24 hours after Trump’s win was secured.

Trudeau also flew to Mar-a-Lago for a dinner with the Republican leader last month.

Sands said Canada is playing good defence, but Ottawa can’t just “avoid bad things from happening.”

Ottawa must demonstrate Canada is a valuable partner. If Canada faces fiscal or regulatory constraints, Sands said, the U.S. will start to look elsewhere.

That could be challenging in the face of fresh threats to bring down the Liberal government, Trudeau’s leadership up in the air, and a high potential for a change in government when Canadians go to the polls in 2025.

There was increasing doubt among U.S. lawmakers during the Biden administration that Canada can actually do things to help America, he added.

For example, Sands said Canada talks a lot about critical minerals, but more can be done to deliver the sought-after resource. He noted the U.S. Department of Defense has made significant investments in Canadian mining as part of the U.S.-Canadian Joint Action Plan on Critical Minerals.

Canada can also be a proactive partner in artificial intelligence regulation or in the Indo-Pacific.

“There’s a lot at stake right now,” Sands said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 27, 2024.

Kelly Geraldine Malone, The Canadian Press