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Saskatchewan’s premier says the province’s industries are largely protected from U.S. tariffs because of the North American free trade agreement known as CUSMA, but now the question remains is how long CUSMA’s framework will keep those industries safe?
Chris Lane, president and CEO of Economic Development Regina, incoming Saskatchewan Trade & Export Partnership (STEP) president and CEO, joins guest host Tamara Cherry on The Evan Bray Show to explore what the ongoing tariff conflict means for Regina and the province.
This comes just over a week since U.S. President Donald Trump hit Canada with a baseline 35 per cent tariff.
Read more:
- Trade top of mind as Canada’s premiers hold three-day meeting in Ontario
- On-again, off-again: Producers, small business irked by trade war
- NDP Leader Carla Beck says province needs a ‘united front’ to fight tariffs: Evan Bray Show
Listen to the full interview with Chris Lane, or read the transcript below:
The following questions and answers have been edited for length and clarity.
TAMARA CHERRY: The mood in this country feels very different right now than it did five months ago, when we seemed to have a much more united narrative on this trade war. What are you feeling in this moment?
CHRIS LANE: The economies of Ontario, B.C., Saskatchewan and the Maritimes are all very different, but there is unity in the idea that the freer the trade with the United States, the better. I think that’s why you see unity behind the federal government that ultimately owns the responsibility to negotiate that deal coming forward.
We’ve got two things happening at the same time: a real concern about immediate tariffs and the situation with goods crossing the border today and the looming bigger question is, what is the future CUSMA framework look like, and does that have a much bigger impact on on Saskatchewan’s economy than, maybe necessarily, the tariffs being imposed in the last few months.
Economic Development Regina flagged a potential $174 million impact from possible US tariffs. Did we see this impact come through?
LANE: We’re not yet. And I think even as the tariffs become larger, in some cases, that number continues to grow. The potential impact is over $300 million now, and the potential jobs affected are over 700 and so that’s a real bite out of Regina.
That’s the worst-case scenario, based on which the tariffs are applied to the goods that about 200 companies in Regina send to the U.S. annually. It’s a good flag in the sand to understand if we don’t do a good job of this, or if we’re backed into a corner on this, this is the economic risk.
Thankfully, though, and I think the premier says it well, is that 95 per cent of what we do produce and ship to the United States is currently covered by CUSMA, but it also reminds us that it’s that long-term deal that is the real risk, but also the real opportunity. I think what we don’t want to get caught here is playing economic checkers, where everybody else is playing chess.
We’ve been hearing a lot of stories of Canadian businesses that are finally getting their CUSMA paperwork. How well are Saskatchewan businesses doing at meeting CUSMA rules and regulations?
LANE: I don’t think that’s a problem for the big exporters, like the large manufacturing companies. I think there was an immediate concern nationally, not just in Saskatchewan, when the threat of the tariffs became real, that there was a rush through the bureaucratic paperwork to get CUSMA-compliant. And in some cases, it might not make a lot of sense for a company to go through that hassle.
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