As Sask. wildfire season begins, upcoming weather ‘extremely critical’

April 1 marked the official start of wildfire season in Saskatchewan, following an unprecedented season in 2025 that saw nearly three million hectares of forest burnt and hundreds of homes and other buildings destroyed.

One environmental science expert said the next few weeks will determine what this year’s wildfire season holds.

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“The next couple of weeks are extremely critical,” said Colin Laroque, who teaches environmental science, weather, climate, and forestry at the University of Saskatchewan and is the head of soil science at the College of Agriculture and Bio Resources.

“If it warms up slow, there’s a good chance we’ll save it. If it warms up rapidly, it’ll be like the last two years.”

Laroque said the snowpack in the north is normal or slightly above normal, and that may sound good, except that the province went into the fall on a dry period, meaning the frozen ground has a moisture deficit.

“If we can take that excess that’s kind of in the north right now and slowly melt it and slowly let it trickle in, it’ll help fill back up the soil moisture and the trees and the plants will grab it, and then our forest fire season might not get off to such a dramatic start like we did last year,” Laroque said.

“But if it warms up really rapidly in the next two to three weeks… the snow will melt rapidly, the ground will still be frozen, and the water won’t go in… and that’s what I’m worried about.”

Laroque said wildfires have been coming earlier and earlier in the spring over the past 10 years. He’s concerned the province is lacking both in preparations and budgeting for the wildfire season.

The Saskatchewan Public Safety Agency received $140 million in this year’s budget, an increase of $20 million over the year before. But last year’s wildfire season cost the government $392 million in extra expenses.

Finance Minister Jim Reiter defended the funding, saying the provincial government will respond if the flames becoming overwhelming this year.

“It’s always difficult with those kinds of things,” he said earlier this month. “It’s essentially a bit of a status quo, with an increase. There’s another new plane coming online – water bomber coming online – so there’s an increase in that regard… But hopefully we don’t have the kind of year we did last year.”

Laroque said he doesn’t understand why the province would keep it status quo, noting that wildfire seasons continue to become more extreme.

“What they’re doing is sticking their head in the sand kind of idea, and hoping that it will go away. It’s not going to go away.”

He’s not the only one concerned about the wildfire outlook for 2026. The chief of the fire department at Candle Lake said he hopes to see more funding for prevention, education and equipment to help communities flight flames and prevent fires from breaking out in the first place.

“Things like fire breaks around communities, things like having enough sprinkler protection to protect communities,” said Jim Arnold. “Honestly, we need to put way more money into preparing for wildfires rather than fighting wildfires.”

He said there should be more funding towards forestry management, thinning out trees and dead wood that can fuel flames.

In an email to paNOW, an public safety agency spokesperson said the organization has been preparing for the 2026 wildfire season since the last season ended, and a spring technical media briefing with senior leaders will soon occur to provide an update on the upcoming wildfire season and review an outlook of conditions.

The Saskatchewan Public Safety Agency’s Active Wildfires Situation map shows there are currently no fires burning within the province.

Laroque predicts things are going to get worse before they get better.

A potential “super El Niño” is projected for late 2026, bringing with it risks of extreme global temperatures, flooding in some places, and drought elsewhere.

“The last Super El Niño’ or El Niño we had was the Christmas of 2023,” said Laroque. “What followed was one of the worst fire seasons in Western Canada ever.”

If it builds and starts to warm up the oceans around South America, Laroque said it will start to affect Canada next Christmas, which could make 2027’s wildfire season even more extreme.

–with files from 650 CKOM