Murray Wood: Who's hot... and who's not
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Stock up on sunscreen and try to stay hydrated this summer, Environment Canada says it’s going to be a warm one.
Environment and Climate Change Canada has released its national forecast on what to expect for this year’s summer.
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A seasonal outlook provides a big-picture view of the season ahead, using long-range forecasts to highlight general trends. They describe if conditions are more likely to be above, near, or below normal as compared to historical climate.
Jennifer Smith is a warning preparedness meteorologist with Environment Canada and said that much of the country is expected to see warmer-than-normal conditions, with a variety of hot-spots.
“The strongest warm signals are found in British Columbia, Yukon, along the mainland portions of the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, the northern parts of the Prairies, as well as Atlantic Canada,” she said.
While the forecast calls for warmer than normal temperatures, that doesn’t mean that every day will be a scorcher.
“It’s important to remember that warmer than normal summer refers to the overall tendency and not the temperature of individual days. Even in regions leaning warm, periods of cooler weather will still occur,” said Smith.
As for what to expect for rain, Smith said it’s a harder condition to pinpoint but said that models currently point to a drier than normal summer.
“Compared to temperature, the precipitation signal is much weaker across Canada — this indicates no clear signal or lower confidence in a consistent wet or dry pattern for many regions. Where a signal does emerge, it generally points to drier than normal conditions across much of the country,” she said.
“Summer precipitation is highly variable and very difficult to predict at a seasonal time scale. A few intense rainfall events can account for a large portion of summer precipitation totals.”
One of the factors aimed to have an impact on weather in the country this year is an El Niño that’s expected to reach moderate to strong levels by the end of the year.
Dr. Nathan Gillett is a research scientist with Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis. He said that the system is expected to develop over the summer and grow throughout the year.
“While there’s uncertainty in how strong that El Niño could be, some of the models are predicting a very strong El Niño, and so it could become one of the strongest El Niños on record,” he said.
While El Niño conditions typically cause milder than normal winters over most of Canada, they don’t have much influence on the temperature in the summer.
When it comes to the effects of climate change, Gillet said things have gotten warmer, with humanity being the ones to blame.
“Canada’s average summer temperatures have warmed by about 1.65 degrees Celsius since 1948. Canada is warming at nearly twice the global rate, and most of this warming has been caused by human-induced climate change,” he said.
“The forecast anomalies are relative to that 1991 to 2020 base period, and what that means is that because of the long-term warming, we’re going to see warm anomalies more often than cold anomalies, so the long-term warming of Canada’s climate adds to the regional warm anomalies that are seen in this summer’s forecast,” said Gillett.
As things warm up, Health Canada is asking people to prepare. Gregory Richardson is the manager of the Heat Action Division within the Climate Change and Health Office at Health Canada. He said extreme heat can be dangerous.
“Extreme heat can affect anyone, however, older adults, infants, young children, and people with chronic illnesses are at greater risk. This can include people with diabetes, mental illnesses, cardiovascular disease, or lung disease.
“People with low incomes, those experiencing homelessness, and people who work or exercise in the heat are also at greater risk during extreme heat events, and it’s not just outdoor temperatures that are concerning. Rising temperatures can also cause indoor environments to heat up, especially for those people who do not have access to air conditioning,” he said.
“It’s important to recognize the signs and symptoms of heat-related illness, such as dizziness, fainting, nausea, headaches, unusually rapid breathing or heartbeats, or extreme thirst, and if you have these symptoms, or you know people who do during extreme heat, move yourselves to a cool place and drink liquids right away, and water is best,” said Richardson.
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