How views on Trump’s handling of Iran have shifted, according to a new AP-NORC poll

WASHINGTON (AP) — Most Americans say the war in Iran has not been worth fighting, and President Donald Trump’s approval rating on Iran has fallen slightly since last month, according to a new AP-NORC poll.

The results are a stark repudiation of Trump’s approach to the conflict, which has dragged on far longer than he originally predicted.

About two-thirds of U.S. adults say the war with Iran, which began Feb. 28, has not been worthwhile, according to the new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. That includes the vast majority of Democrats and independents, as well as about 37% of Republicans.

The poll was conducted July 23-27, as the U.S. and Iran paused attacks following a nearly two-week escalation in the war. During the escalation, the U.S. targeted Iranian military and commercial sites while Iran attacked U.S. military facilities in the Middle East, resulting in additional deaths of American service members. Since the war began, 18 U.S. service members have been killed, but the Trump administration has sought to revise those numbers.

The survey reinforces how unpopular the Iran war has become at home, a potential problem for congressional Republicans up for reelection in November who have defended Trump’s military actions. Just 28% of U.S. adults now approve of how Trump is handling Iran, a slight decline from 34% last month. Even Republicans appear to be increasingly unhappy with the prolonged conflict. Roughly 61% of Republicans approve of how Trump is handling Iran, an apparent decline from 71% in June. The margin of sampling error for Republicans is 6 points, so the decline is considered slight, but it’s still noteworthy given Republicans’ much higher approval of how Trump is handling the presidency overall.

Trump’s overall approval rating is at 33%, slightly below where he stood at this point in his first term and similar to where former President Joe Biden stood about one and a half years into his presidency, when inflation peaked.

Robert McClary, a 52-year-old Republican from Sugar Grove, Ohio, is skeptical the war could be brought to an easy conclusion and disapproves of Trump’s handling of it. McClary voted for the president once, in 2016, but recalls that during the last election, Trump campaigned on not starting new wars in the Middle East.

“I don’t have any trust in this administration at all and to why they brought us into this war, why they’re putting our soldiers at risk again,” he said.

The findings also indicate that most Americans’ goals for the conflict may not be aligned with Trump, who has repeatedly said the war was launched to keep a nuclear weapon out of Iran’s hands. While about two-thirds of U.S. adults say it’s “extremely” or “very” important to keep Iran from gaining a nuclear weapon — with Republicans especially likely to say this — even more Americans say it’s highly important for the U.S. to keep gasoline prices low or negotiate a permanent ceasefire with Iran.

McClary added: “I really don’t know what you can do now. I mean, you’ve kind of gotten yourself buried into this mess.”

Relatively few want military action against Iran to continue

There’s little appetite among Americans for a prolonged conflict.

Only about 2 in 10 U.S. adults want to continue military action in Iran, while about 3 in 10 say the U.S. should pause military action and seek a renewed ceasefire through negotiations. About 2 in 10 want to completely stop military action in Iran and roughly one-quarter don’t know enough to say.

About half of Republicans say the U.S. should continue military action against Iran, particularly those who identify as “very conservative.” Republicans who identify as MAGA — part of Trump’s Make America Great Again movement — are much likelier than non-MAGA Republicans to say the war should continue. Non-MAGA Republicans are more likely to want a ceasefire or a complete halt to the military action.

Jennifer Norton, a 71-year-old Republican from Crossville, Tennessee, supports military action in Iran but has been displeased to see prices rising for things like beef roasts and hamburgers. Norton lives on a “modest income,” and things are getting expensive.

“I am getting a little impatient, but when I start to dwell on that for a minute, I remember Mr. President Trump is a brilliant businessman,” she said. “He can’t tell us exactly what he’s doing, but I trust that he’s doing something. I mean, he is doing fine.”

Independents and Democrats are more likely than Republicans to want to stop military action against Iran immediately, although about 3 in 10 Republicans want either a pause or complete stop to military action.

Ryan Sloan, a 39-year-old Republican in Lakeland, Florida, has come to disapprove of the conflict in Iran recently because he wants a better explanation from the Trump administration about why the war intensified in late July.

“Let’s face it, not everybody’s going to be happy with him,” Sloan said. “I just wish I’d have had more transparency about why things were going on the way they were.”

Most say it’s important to keep gas prices down

Many Americans continue to be concerned about the pocketbook impact of the Iran war. About 7 in 10 U.S. adults — 72% — say it’s “extremely” or “very” important for the U.S. to prevent domestic oil and gas prices from rising, up slightly from 67% in March.

Oil topped $100 a barrel last week, ending a brief period of lower prices when hostilities between the U.S. and Iran eased in June. Gas prices rose above $4 per gallon on average, and the elevated fuel price is hitting consumers in other ways, too. Inflation cooled last month but remains elevated, and consumer spending has slowed, with signs that Americans are taking advantage of sales and other incentives.

There are also indications that fluctuating gasoline prices are an increasingly big problem for many Americans. About 4 in 10 say the cost of gas for their car is a “major source” of stress in their life right now, compared to about 3 in 10 in February.

Mikal Baker, a 47-year-old political independent in Sandy Springs, Georgia, disapproves of the war in Iran and is frustrated by the effect on gas prices.

“I don’t see the benefit. I don’t see the total benefit of the American citizen for this war,” he said. But Baker is skeptical it will ever come to an end. “I can’t say it will ever be over with.”

Some Americans may be hoping that gasoline prices could stabilize or go down. About 4 in 10 U.S. adults are “extremely” or “very” concerned about being able to afford gas in the next few months, down slightly from 45% in March.

Republicans prioritize keeping Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon

Even as most Americans prioritize keeping gas prices from rising, a similar share say it’s “extremely” or “very” important to negotiate a permanent ceasefire with Iran.

About 7 in 10 Americans say it’s “extremely” or “very” important for the U.S. to reach a ceasefire agreement, slightly higher than the roughly two-thirds who say it’s at least “very” important to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. That’s also well above the 4 in 10 who say it’s “extremely” or “very” important to prevent Iran from threatening Israel.

Early in the conflict, Trump said the United States’ primary objectives were to degrade Iran’s military capability, eliminate their Navy and Air Force, keep them from gaining nuclear weapons and protect U.S. allies in the region.

Republicans, in particular, say it’s highly important to keep Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. About 8 in 10 say this is at least “very” important, compared to roughly 7 in 10 who say that about preventing oil and gas prices from rising and negotiating a permanent ceasefire with Iran.

Sloan, the Florida Republican, believes it’s important to keep Iran from gaining a nuclear weapon, adding: “We are most definitely their number one targets once they do have nuclear capabilities.”

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The AP-NORC poll of 1,165 adults was conducted July 23-27 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for adults overall is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 6.0 for Republicans overall and plus or minus 5.4 for Democrats overall.

Linley Sanders And Mike Catalini, The Associated Press