Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say

MONTRÉAL — Four years ago, François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec party was so far in the lead at the start of the provincial election campaign that the only debate was who would finish second.

The outcome is far less certain this time around, as a new campaign begins with a slate of new leaders facing serious issues including resurgent referendum conversations and U.S. trade threats.

Christine Fréchette, who succeeded Legault as premier, is expected to trigger the official start of the campaign before the end of the week, sending Quebecers to the polls for a general election on Oct. 5.

The sovereigntist Parti Québécois has been leading in public opinion polls since 2023 and remains the favourite to form government, according to the founder of poll aggregator websites 338Canada and QC125. However, Philippe Fournier notes that the party’s lead has steadily declined after it once appeared to be “heading for a landslide,” based in large part on support from francophone voters.

“There is a favourite, but it’s very close. So anything can happen,” Fournier said.

He compares it to a hockey team leading by a single goal in the third period, after starting with a 4-0 lead. “So you suddenly feel much less comfortable watching the third period,” he said.

PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is facing a crowded field that includes new leaders of the Coalition Avenir Québec and the Liberals, as well as Québec solidaire and the Conservatives hoping to grab votes on the left and right.

Fournier said five parties could likely win seats in October — something he said has not happened since 1976. He added that a vote split could raise the chances of a minority result.

Each party leader has their own challenges. St-Pierre Plamondon has promised to hold a referendum in the first term of a Parti Québécois government, even as polls suggest voters have little appetite for an independence vote.

Fréchette, meanwhile, has to convince voters that she can bring fresh ideas to a governing Coalition Avenir Québec party that had become deeply unpopular by the time Legault resigned in January.

The Liberals under Charles Milliard have to work to expand their support among francophones and Quebecers living in the province’s regions.

Conservative Leader Éric Duhaime is working to secure his party’s first elected seat in the legislature, while left-wing sovereigntist party Québec solidaire must struggle to regain momentum after sitting at the bottom of the polls.

A Léger/Le Journal poll from earlier in August found that 49 per cent of respondents said they could change their mind by election day. For Université du Québec à Montréal professor Danielle Pilette, that points to a population that is unimpressed by what the parties are offering.

“The campaign will likely be very important because up until now, there is likely disappointment in regards to the leaders and the positions also,” she said in a phone interview.

Pilette believes the big issues of the campaign will include health care access and the economy — and of regional development and natural resources in particular. The campaign comes after an aborted forestry reform and failed battery plant investment by the CAQ, and just after the announcement of a tentative energy agreement with Newfoundland and Labrador.

There’s also the referendum, which Pilette describes as a “ball and chain” that could harm the Parti Québécois campaign, as well as trade tensions with the United States.

In last year’s federal election, Mark Carney’s Liberals made gains in the province and across the country by positioning himself as the best person to defend the country’s trade interests with U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration.

But in Quebec, none of the leaders has emerged as a champion on that issue, Pilette says. She say the key to election victory could be becoming more like Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who she believes has successfully conveyed a mix of emotion, ideas and fighting spirit in the face of the U.S. threat.

“The new leaders currently in place (in Quebec), fail to define themselves as a bulwark against the threats that are arising and will continue to arise,” she said.

McGill University political science professor Éric Belanger believes cost of living, housing and rising visible homelessness will also be front and centre during the campaign.

But he also believes the less-discussed issue of public finances could play a big role.

Quebec’s Balanced Budget Act requires the government to eliminate the deficit by 2029—30, and the province’s auditor general warned on Aug. 17 that serious belt-tightening will be needed to meet that goal.

“That means a lot of restructuring, budget cuts, and reduced bureaucracy coming up,” said Bélanger, who noted that the Conservative party and the PQ have already started talking about cutting costs and restructuring bureaucracy.

A challenge for the parties, he said, will be to present Quebecers with a clear vision for the future, without the financial leeway to make big promises.

It’s almost certain that the legislature will look very different than it did in 2022, when the Coalition Avenir Québec romped to the province’s largest majority in 30 years and the PQ finished with three seats.

But that’s nothing new in Quebec, where voters have never been afraid to switch allegiances. From 2012 to 2018, Quebec voted in different parties in three consecutive elections, Fournier noted. But predicting the next wave is never easy.

“When I look at the current numbers, it would be a huge surprise if the election ends with the numbers we see now,” he said. “Because elections where the numbers don’t move in Québec are the exception, not the rule.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 24, 2026.

Morgan Lowrie, The Canadian Press