Trade war with United States looms large over Ontario byelections

TORONTO — Canada’s escalating trade war with the United States looms large over three upcoming provincial byelections in Ontario.

Candidates said a variety of provincial issues has popped up during campaigning, but U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest round of tariffs and a spat over Lake Ontario’s name have raised fresh concern for voters.

Evergreen concerns – affordability, hallway health care and education – remain, the candidates said.

Liberal candidates are hoping for a boost from Prime Minister Mark Carney’s high approval rating and the federal Liberal brand while Progressive Conservatives believe the same thing will happen after Premier Doug Ford’s latest tough talk against Trump.

The contest in Hamilton East–Stoney Creek will be closely fought after Progressive Conservative cabinet minister Neil Lumsden retired in August.

Hamilton has long been a New Democrats stronghold, but the Progressive Conservatives have invested time, energy and money in an effort to flip the city blue. Lumsden, a former Canadian Football League player and general manager of the Hamilton Tiger Cats, took the seat from the New Democrats in 2022.

Jeff Beattie, a longtime city councillor, has stepped in for the conservatives. He’ll be in a tight battle with the NDP’s Monique Taylor and Liberal Heino Doessing.

Taylor represented the neighbouring riding of Hamilton Mountain provincially after winning four elections from 2011 to 2022. She resigned in 2024 to run federally, but lost.

She’s now running in the riding she grew up in and pitching her years at Queen’s Park to voters at the door.

“It’s a tight race, but we’re the ones who can beat the conservatives and people are definitely seeing that, knowing that I have the experience, people know me and they know to trust me,” she said.

Taylor said many voters are concerned about the impact of Trump’s tariffs.

“Folks are definitely going to feel the brunt of tariffs, especially in a steel factory town, and so we’re really concerned and want to open the legislature to put measures in place to protect families who will be affected,” Taylor said.

Ford has so far rebuffed opposition parties who want him to recall the legislature early to deal with tariffs.

Doessing, who came second to Lumsden in the last election with 30 per cent of the vote, believes Carney and the Liberal brand will help his cause. He cut his chops on a municipal council in his native Denmark before moving to Canada in 2010.

“We feel that the gap between first and second place is narrowing quite substantially,” Doessing said. “The Liberal stock is up thanks to a good reputation federally. And then it’s getting narrowed on the other end because people are getting tired of Ford’s increasing pace of scandals. It seems like there’s a new one in the papers every other day now.”

Doessing referred to Ford’s decision to buy a private jet for nearly $29 million, then return it days later after a public uproar. The Ford government has also come under fire for allowing Toronto-area ministers to stay in hotels in the city on the public dime. That led to the resignation of Tourism Minister Stan Cho while several other legislators have also had to pay back the expenses.

“It’s come up at the door, people wanting to get back to common sense, to get value for our money,” Doessing said.

The PC Party of Ontario did not respond to requests for interviews with its candidates.

But Laryssa Waler, the founder and CEO of Henley Strategies who used to work as the director of communications in Ford’s office, believes the premier’s latest stance against Trump will give Beattie a bump.

“He’s done a really good job coming off as (doing) the best defending Ontario, it’s sort of his natural sweet spot,” she said. “And that’s important for voters, especially in Hamilton, to see because it’s a steel town.”

Waler thinks it will be a tight three-way race in Hamilton East–Stoney Creek.

She also believes the New Democrats will hold onto Scarborough Southwest. Doly Begum won three elections for the NDP beginning in 2018. But she resigned in February to join the federal Liberals, where she won a byelection in the spring.

That sparked a dramatic Liberal nomination race that featured Nate Erskine-Smith, who intended to run for the party’s leadership. But he dropped out of the leadership contest after failing to win the nomination.

Ahsanul Hafiz, a businessman who owns 30 Dominos pizza restaurants, beat Erskine-Smith and said it feels like he’s been campaigning “forever.” But he remains energized, especially after the latest salvo from Trump.

“I’ve heard a lot of concerns about what’s going on, but I think everybody’s happy with Liberals right now because our brand is very strong under the leadership of Mark Carney,” Hafiz said. “So, it definitely has an influence.”

Hafiz said he is making a case to voters that the only party that can take down Ford is the Liberals, who are currently third in terms of seat count at Queen’s Park.

He believes it will be a two-way race with the NDP’s Fatima Shaban in the Scarborough riding.

Shaban ran in the riding federally in the spring byelection, but came a distant third to Begum. She said she has been campaigning for so long that she’s seen several hot button issues come and go, like Ford’s idea to expand Billy Bishop Toronto Airport to allow jets to land. That sparked an outcry from Toronto residents, including those in Scarborough Southwest, before the federal government rejected the proposal.

The latest issue is a proposed data centre in Scarborough that residents need much more information about before green-lighting it, Shaban said.

Shaban worked in finance at the Salvation Army and pledged to bring those skills — looking at every dollar spent and keeping everyone accountable — to Queen’s Park.

The third race is for the seat in York-Simcoe, which had been held by former Treasury Board president Caroline Mulroney since 2018, and by another Progressive Conservative for the previous decade. Susan Lahey, an East Gwillimbury town councillor, is set to face off against Liberal Naomi Davison and NDP’s Bobby Nikmard.

Voters head to the polls Thursday.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 2, 2026.

Liam Casey, The Canadian Press