The Wood File: Who's hot...and who's not
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EDMONTON — The referendum campaigns on Alberta’s place in Confederation have entered the homestretch, with politicians set to speak and groups ready to rally.
Advance voting stations open Tuesday.
Less than a week later, on Monday, Oct. 19, it’s the official polling day. Albertans are answering 10 questions, including whether the province should stay in Canada or hold a second, binding referendum on leaving the country.
It promises to be a busy week.
Former Alberta United Conservative premier Jason Kenney and one-time NDP rival and fellow premier Rachel Notley will speak for a united Canada at an event in Edmonton on Tuesday.
On Friday, federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith will speak in Calgary. Both are urging Alberta stay in the Canadian fold.
The federalist Forever Canadian group will gather supporters in Calgary Thursday and Edmonton Friday.
On the weekend, duelling rallies are scheduled in Edmonton at the legislature grounds. The pro-separation group Let Alberta Decide has announced an event on Saturday and the Alberta Federation of Labour is sponsoring a unity rally on Sunday.
On the ground, MP Dane Lloyd has been leading the federal Conservative party’s pro-Canada drive with door knocking and public events. Lloyd said turnout will be key. “There is no substitute for direct engagement,” he said in a statement.
Prime Minister Mark Carney and Liberal cabinet ministers have not announced plans but have been in Alberta numerous times in recent months to, among other things, announce a fast-track plan for a new Alberta oil pipeline and remind Albertans of billions of dollars in ongoing military spending.
Carney made a pitch for Canada in a Thanksgiving video on Monday, noting the holiday was a day to slow down and reflect, and a chance for Albertans to give thanks to Canada for the rights, freedoms and opportunities it offers.
The Alberta Opposition NDP says it has been going all out, with more than 15,000 volunteers, door knocking and phoning to keep Albertans in Confederation.
NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi said they are stepping into a void left by Smith and her UCP colleagues.
Nenshi has lambasted Smith for not following through on her promise to actively campaign for a united Canada. Last week, Nenshi noted that not only are Smith’s cabinet members not getting out the vote, many have left on foreign trips during the critical lead-up to the vote.
“They should bloody be knocking on doors. They should be getting out the vote,” Nenshi said. “They’re behaving like separatists.”
Smith rejects the criticism, saying she has made her pro-Canada sentiments clear in speeches and at coffee parties. Her government has put $4 million into an advertising campaign encouraging people to vote for “a strong and sovereign Alberta within a united Canada.”
“I go into some pretty tough rooms, and I talk to a lot of people who are voting for (the separatist option),” Smith said last week on the Ryan Jespersen podcast. “I make my case about why it is that I think Canada can work – is (in fact) working better than ever.”
The separation question is the last of the 10 issues Albertans are being asked to mark an X on. The first nine focus on immigration and the Constitution. Smith has said she hopes Albertans vote yes to first nine to give her some leverage to negotiate with the federal government.
The immigration questions ask Albertans whether the province should have more say on who comes here to work and whether it’s time to put more limitations — and perhaps introduce fees — on some who arrive and seek access to health care and education.
The constitutional questions ask Albertans for a blessing to pursue talks with other provinces on wresting power from the federal government and abolishing the Senate.
Smith’s UCP never campaigned on holding a separation vote in the last election in 2023. However, Smith says some Albertans’ anger and disillusionment with the country spread during the term of former Liberal prime minister Justin Trudeau to the point that hundreds of thousands have signed petitions for and against Confederation. A referendum, she has said, is now necessary to resolve the matter once and for all.
She has taken heat from both sides. Some separatists have derided her pro-separation question as a weak-kneed plan to make a plan. Some critics on the pro-Canada side say Smith is both arsonist and firefighter – rolling the dice on the future of the country while framing herself as its champion.
Polls before Smith announced the referendum and after have suggested Albertans are consistently in favour of staying in the Confederation fold. To that end, critics, including Nenshi, say the referendum was never about Canada but merely about Smith placating separatist hardliners in her party to keep them from fracturing the movement or rising up against her.
Recent events suggest Smith and her party are taking a hit for calling the referendum in the first place. Polls show Smith’s UCP bleeding support to the benefit of the NDP with the next election scheduled for a year from now. Last month, Smith’s party lost a Calgary byelection to the NDP in what had been a longtime UCP stronghold.
Smith has also been forced into pretzel-style arguments when pushed on why her caucus and party are formally pro-Canada yet allow at least one pro-separatist legislature member to remain in their ranks. Smith has said the party can still be officially pro-Canada while allowing for a diversity of opinion.
On referendum night, Elections Alberta officials say the separation question will be counted first. The result should be known sometime early the following morning. Smith has said a simple majority one way or the other will carry the day.
The other nine questions, however, have spawned more questions, such as what exactly the new immigration rules would look like and whom they would apply to.
Smith’s government has said that will be decided later this fall by her government should it get a mandate on those questions. And what does a mandate on those questions look like? Smith was asked by reporters last week.
“We’ll look at the voter turnout, and we’ll look at the result, and we will be able to give you some clear direction on Oct. 20th,” she replied.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 12, 2026.
Lisa Johnson, The Canadian Press
