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Although the NDP came out victorious in two of Thursday’s three byelections, its success cannot predict next year’s general election.
Dr. Daniel Westlake, an assistant professor of political studies at the University of Saskatchewan, said byelections aren’t a good indication of voter turnout.
“It’s hard to surprise me with byelection results. It’s hard to know whose going to turn out in these byelections so you can have turnouts that are biased to either party,” he said.
The campaign size is also much smaller than a general election, which can also affect results.
He’s not surprised with the NDP’s wins in the Regina Walsh Acres or Regina Coronation Park ridings, although they have been held by the Saskatchewan Party for over 10 years.
The NDP said this win sends a message to Scott Moe and the Saskatchewan Party, but Westlake isn’t so sure.
He said with only three ridings to judge from, it’s not an accurate representation of the province.
“Short term, it’s an advantage to the NDP but I wouldn’t use this to predict what’s going to happen in the next general election,” he said.
As for why voters flipped, he said that’s also hard to gauge from a byelection.
“It’s really hard to know with any degree of confidence what the main issues in a particular riding are. The people that are on the doors door-knocking might have a bit more of a sense of that. But even then, you never quite know if they’re getting a good representation of the riding or not,” said Westlake.
The Sask. Party held its seat in Lumsden-Morse, with the Saskatchewan United Party (SUP) placing second with 22.7 per cent of the vote.
Westlake said the Sask. Party can afford to lose votes in rural Saskatchewan where it has a strong voter turnout and tends to win by a large margin. It’s the urban centres it should be worried about.
“This could be a problem if the Sask. United Party start to draw votes from the Sask. Party in more urban areas where the Sask. Party is in close competition with the NDP. Losing votes to Sask. United is not going to give Sask. United a seat, but if it brings the Sask. Party vote lower, that could be beneficial to the Sask. NDP,” he said.
Westlake doesn’t think this byelection tells us enough about how the United Party is doing in urban and suburban areas just yet where it could end up costing the Sask. Party some seats.
